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Monday, November 18, 2019

The start of a new trading week continues with the same grind higher for stocks.  The Dow rose 31 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways with a downward bias.  Overbought with new all time highs.  The beat goes on.  I'm not sure how much longer this can go on.  Plenty of time in the December option cycle, so there's no hurry to put on a SPY trade.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was about average.  It appears that I have once again missed the GDX call trade.  Not happy about that.  However we have yet to see a robust rise here for the gold shares.  I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there but will adjust it as necessary if we start to see gold falter.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still waiting for a pull back to the breakout at 3025 for the S&P 500.  I might be waiting forever for that to occur.  With no overhead resistance the market simply continues to gravitate higher.  The low VIX just helps that along.  The favorable seasonal time period is another plus.  If a deal is reached with the US and China trade issue that is actually signed even higher prices could happen.  I will say that sometimes in December there is a decline in the market to set things up for a January rally.  But it's still November and the overbought condition has persisted for weeks on end.  So it's watch and wait for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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