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Friday, November 08, 2019

Sputtering to the upside for the Dow as it gained 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls.  Remaining overbought here on the technical indicators as we grind our way higher.  New closing all time highs for some of the major stock indices albeit on lighter volume.  I'm still in a cautious mood here for the overall market.  Yes we can grind higher with the VIX at the low level that it is.  But with the narrow breadth I think most of the gains have already been made and the next move should be a drop back to the breakout of 3025 for the S&P 500.  The question is from what level.  At this rate 3100 seems a reasonable upside target.  GE was up another 1/4 on good volume.  A straight line up here lately.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I re-entered my GDX January call trade but it wasn't filled.  I'll go over this idea again on the weekend.  Oversold on GDX but not the XAU.  Gold and silver appear to be breaking down here but the technical indicators are at levels that rewarded purchasing calls in the recent past.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The bond market will be closed on Monday for the holiday.  All others will be open.  Perhaps we'll continue higher into the expiration in a week.  But I do not expect any major move to the upside from here.  I will wait for a pull back to the breakout zone and look to try some SPY calls there if it happens.  Gold looks like it's heading lower here on the weekly chart.  Support there comes in at $1425.  GDX seems to be at the moment of truth since the support there is at 26 and we are practically there.  The weekly chart there looks like it wants to break down although we are oversold but not completely.  Tough call but I'm leaning towards attempting the GDX calls anyway.  More study needs to done over the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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