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Tuesday, November 19, 2019

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 102 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the green.  The summation index is still moving lower but not with any conviction.  No real drivers of price here as the market waits for the next trade or impeachment headline.  We're still way overbought any way you look at it.  I'm patiently waiting for the next SPY trade.  Perhaps waiting until after the holiday week is the way to go here.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar ended flat for the session.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  The technical indicators for GDX are mid-range.  The XAU is overbought but not completely.  I am leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there but will adjust it if we turn around in gold.  The recent move higher has been lackluster and muted.  Plus it hasn't really gone up much compared to the previous selling.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the VIX are converging which usually precedes a big move.  If the VIX rises and volatility picks up we should see stocks fall.  In theory at least.  I'm still not ruling out a return to the break out point of 3025 in the S&P 500.  That would be the spot to try the SPY calls if it actually happens.  Sure you could try the SPY puts soon but trying to pick the top in an extremely overbought market is tough.  There have been plenty of signals and none of them have worked.  There's one ready right now as well.  But the declines have been shallow and just a stop along the way to higher prices.  Europe and Asia were mixed once again.  We'll see if the Fed minutes tomorrow get things going.

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