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Thursday, November 07, 2019

A good news headline from the US/China trade talks and the Dow soared 182 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  This month or so rally is now losing steam.  The breadth lately hasn't matched up properly with the price moves higher.  We could drift higher into the expiration next week but a sell off would not surprise me.  Had we rallied into the close today I would have a different narrative.  But things with the market are starting to look tired to me.  We will not stay overbought forever.  The VIX says any decline here won't be huge.  However a pause in the festivities is now overdue.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains pretty good.  Gold got whacked today and was off almost $25.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX dropped over 3/4.  Volume was heavy.  It appears that the big move forecast by the Bollinger bands is to the downside.  I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  Support for gold comes in at around $1450.  Another day like today and we'll be there.  The gold shares aren't completely oversold yet but should be soon perhaps even by tomorrow.  The fundamentals have now changed for gold it seems as uncertainty on the trade war is waning, rates are no longer going lower, Brexit has been put off again and the US dollar is rising.  I'm still a believer in golf though for the longer term.  I may also re-enter my GDX January call trade tonight after I check the charts again.  At a lower price of course and perhaps a different strike price.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I originally thought that we would simply move up into the expiration next week.  The recent price action says that perhaps some decline is due sooner rather than later.  The breadth is narrowing so much that the rally simply cannot go on like this.  I'd certainly like to try some SPY November puts here but don't know if I will.  I do think that the breakout higher is for real though but that doesn't mean that we can't have a move back down to the breakout point at around 3025 for the S&P 500.  So there will be plenty to ponder as we consider what to do overnight.  Europe and Asia rallied on the positive trade war news.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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