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Monday, November 11, 2019

A mixed bag again to start the week as the Dow rose 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 lower.  We got a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions.  That should occur tomorrow if the signal proves valid.  We sold off hard at the open today with Dow off over 150.  But as has been the case lately the declines are seen as buying opportunities.  It was a partial holiday today with banks and the bond market closed.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold lost another $6 today as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  Oversold now for gold and GDX but not the XAU.  I did place another open order for the GDX January calls but I'm not exactly sure this is the right trade.  I'm leaving it out there though and it could get filled with a bit more of a decline for GDX.  Once again we are at an area technically that has ended the declines in the gold shares before.  However I'm not as confident in the upside from here this time around as the backdrop for higher metals prices isn't as bullish.  That may change with the testimony form the Fed chairman on Wednesday or it may simply further depress price.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and at a low level.  That is why the recent rally hasn't failed.  We had a chance to turn things around there today but it was not to be.  Perhaps the usual bullish options expiration week bias will take hold.  We are overdue for some kind of selling though.  I do think that a trip back to the break out point cannot be ruled out but it is a question of when.  Inflation data due out later in the week along with retail sales on Friday.  Everybody will be back at their desks tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the market action and headlines tonight.  

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