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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Another mixed day as the Dow was flat on the day with light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 were positive.  My guess is that the market is trying to make up its mind on whether or not to roll over here.  Still short term overbought on all the technical indicators that I look at for the S&P.  That isn't to say that we can't grind higher for the rest of expiration week but a pause is now long overdue.  GE was up a few cents on about average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks and came off of it lows set earlier in the day.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  My open order for the GDX January calls wasn't filled despite hitting my buy price as the low for the session.  This trade now may have been missed if the gold shares continue to climb tomorrow.  My hope is that they trade sideways form here for a while but if the trade has been missed so be it.  I'm not all together certain that the calls here are the right course of action with the recent background negative developments for gold.  But as usual the markets go where they want and anything can happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the Fed chairman speaking in Washington tomorrow and that has the potential to move things.  I'm not exactly sure what to expect there.  Probably more of the status quo.  The VIX remains oversold and continues with rather low readings.  This is a positive for stocks as long as it keeps up.  It also says to me that any decline will be shallow in the near term.  Barring some unforeseen out of the blue headline.  Gold and the gold shares look like they're trying to put in a near term bottom here.  I hope for my sake that it takes more time than today to develop.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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