The market traded lower to end the month as the Dow fell 140 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  This should start to turn the summation index sideways.  I don't think that this is the beginning of a huge decline.  The market came up from the worst levels of the day.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow either.  Of course things could change with the reaction to the jobs report tomorrow so we'll see.  We are still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I might still consider the SPY November puts before expiration.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  No follow through to yesterdays gains.  Gold was up over $15 as the US dollar was lower.  The US house also voted for impeachment hearings against the president.  Those are possible reasons for todays rise in the precious metal.  The XAU added 2 1/3, while GDX climbed almost 3/4.  Volume was good to the upside and this could be the beginning of the huge move projected by the tight Bollinger bands.  If so it is something worth chasing despite the short term overbought condition of the gold shares.  It looks like I may have missed it here again.  My open order remains out there for the GDX January calls but it is far from being hit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up today but we'll know more if it is real after tomorrow.  To me it seems as though we are in a drift upward for stocks.  Of course this will eventually end but I don't think right now is the time.  I could be wrong.  If gold and the gold shares continue to rise tomorrow I may just have to jump on board.  There is the potential for something big there in my view if we continue higher.  As for the S&P 500, the price action at the end of the day says that we are not going to simply drop from here.  If we closed near the lows it's a different story.  Let's see how things go tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll watch for the market reaction to the employment report tomorrow and take it from there. 

The market rallied on the Fed as the Dow rose 115 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We were lower for much of the session pre-Fed but then moved up in the final two hours.  Rates were lowered again and chairman Powell afterward said what the market wanted to hear.  The S&P remains short term oversold and staying that way.  It looks like we could see some more rally tomorrow on the AAPL and FB earnings that were announced after the bell.  I canceled my orders for the SPY November puts.  We've broken the resistance and the volume is decent.  Markets can simply stay overbought for extended periods of time and that is the situation we find ourselves in today.  I may still try the SPY puts again before the end of the week or early next week.  GE was up a buck on extremely heavy volume.  The street liked the earnings.  Gold bounced around on the Fed today.  The futures finally finished with a gain of $8.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had positive fractional gains on better volume.  The gold shares sold off but came back up off of their lows after the Fed speech.  More overbought than oversold here but not dramatically so.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to drop and remains oversold.  This is no doubt positive for stocks but it can't go on forever.  Regardless, the S&P should continue to rise with declines probably being shallow as long as the VIX remains below the 16 level.  The TRAN and RUT were both lower today but both came up form the lows of the session.  The breadth is the only thing lacking in this run to new highs for the market.  At some point that will catch up with the rally but the question is when?  We've still got the jobs report on Friday to digest but at this rate it will be viewed as a positive no matter what the numbers are.  I'm not sure why I don't trust this rally but I don't.  Technically, the picture is positive despite being overbought for so long.  I'll look things over again tonight.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow fell 19 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow led by a decline in the NASDAQ.  I'm still considering the SPY November puts if we get some strength tomorrow.  The market remains short term overbought.  A lot hinges on what the Fed has to say tomorrow.  We'll also get earnings from Facebook and Apple after the bell.  Google disappointed today and that could be a harbinger of things to come.  Or not.  The VIX remains low in market rally mode and is oversold.  So there are plenty of crosscurrents that could lead things to go either way.  I will probably wait for the Fed announcement and short any rally out of that.  If we drop beforehand, I'll sit things out.  GE was flat on average volume.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving my order out there for the GDX January calls.  We'll need to see some more decline there to be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  About ready to attempt a trade in the SPY here but it will be risky.  We've broken out above resistance for the S&P but it hasn't been robust.  That could change tomorrow and that is one of the risks.  Good earnings after the bell is another risk.  Add the employment report due out on Friday and you can see how the risks for a trade here either way pile up.  I am pretty sure that if things set up for me though I'll pull the trigger.  Some of my indicators are topping out and pointing towards at least a short term decline.  We've remained overbought for a while now and although that could continue, I'm betting that it won't.  The market is at least due to take a rest.  I could be wrong though but one thing is for sure.  Tomorrows market action will tell a lot.  Asia was generally higher with Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and take it from there.  

The Dow was higher today and the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs.  The most watched index rose 132 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We got a signal on Friday for a big move according to the McClellan oscillator.  Today qualifies as that.  We have broken above resistance for the S&P but the volume was lacking and I'm considering getting some SPY November puts.  In fact today may have been the day to do that.  If we open down tomorrow, it may be too late for the puts.  Or I could simply be wrong here and the rally keeps going.  Short term overbought still and staying that way.  It should be an interesting week, with the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Sort term overbought here as well.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower as well.  The XAU was down 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  The price action we saw on Friday foretold the move lower today for gold and the gold shares.  However the Bollinger bands remain tight for these instruments.  A big move is coming in either direction here.  I did once again place an open order for the GDX January calls which I am leaving out there.  But if GDX breaks the 26 level, I'll have to cancel the order because that would mean that the big move in gold will be lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit higher today despite the nice move in stocks.  This sometimes means that lower prices are coming.  We've been short term overbought for quite some time now for the S&P.  I'm expecting the indicators to move lower at some point during the November option cycle.  Perhaps with the events of this week we'll finally get a catalyst for lower prices.  But we do have the over the counter prices breaking out to new highs as well so we may just trend higher with no break.  RUT continues to lag though and that is a concern for the bulls.  With all the news that's about to break this week, staying on the sidelines is a strategy as well.  However sticking with the technical indicators is the way that we'll go.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  We'll be watching the volume closely form here.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  It seems as though there is a worldwide shift into stocks going on at the moment.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.    

The market moved higher today as the Dow gained 152 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We almost closed at a new record high for the S&P 500.  It did set anew intra-day high but then backed off.  Good earnings and positive US/China feedback propelled stocks higher.  We are still short term overbought for the major averages.  In rallies we remain that way.  If we get through the resistance here on good volume the market will go much higher.  If we struggle our way from here, I may try the SPY November puts ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  The VIX continues lower and that means the rally has some staying power in my view.  However I would not rule out a short sell off if the news on Wednesday isn't what the market wants.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks after being higher early on.  The US dollar was up a bit today as well.  The XAU gained 1 1/2, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was good again.  The gold shares finished off of their highs as well.  The price action today was puzzling to me and I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  We are approaching short term overbought for the gold shares.  We have broken the down trend lines of resistance for gold and the gold shares.  But the action isn't exactly as robust as you would like to see.  I'll be looking things over the weekend to determine what to do next.  It appears that we may have to head back to the resistance line just broken before a meaningful rally ensues.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like everything is lining up for new all time closing highs next week for the S&P.  If so, I'll be paying close attention to the volume and the breadth.  The wild card is the Fed announcement on Wednesday along with the chairmans speech afterward.  I will probably wait for the GDX trade after that as well.  The TRAN had a good day today with good volume.  Perhaps that will lead the Dow higher as well.  RUT had a positive session as well.  These indices do remain pretty overbought though and that won't last forever.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow fell 28 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 both showed gains.  Overbought and staying that way for now.  Earnings have come in OK so far and they are not having a negative effect.  Waiting on the Fed next week at this point.  Very close to new all time highs on some of the stock indices and we should see them soon.  No headlines out of the blue.  GE was off almost 1/4 on lighter volume.  Gold found buyers today, the futures were up $10 and we're back over the $1500 level.  The US dollar rose as well.  The XAU climbed two points, while GDX added almost 3/4.  We have just risen slightly above the declining tops line for the gold share indices that started in the beginning of September.  The break of that line would put us back in rally mode for the gold shares.  It appears to be in the cards at this point.  I did adjust my open order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled.  I my adjust it again tomorrow.  This would be one of those times where it may pay to chase the move.  Not that doesn't really fit in with my guess of no change in rates on Wednesday.  However the charts provide much better information than my guesses.  If for some reason the gold shares drop again tomorrow, I will have to rethink what I'm doing.  But it looks like the rally in precious metals is about to pick up again right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and the rally in the overall market continues.  We remain comfortably below the 16 level and as long as that continues the rally is on.  Perhaps the Fed will lower the fed funds rate again next week but I certainly don't think that it has to.  I suppose I'll wait and see how things look technically before the announcement on Wednesday and take it from there.  If we get a weak break to new all time highs in the S&P, I'll consider the SPY November puts.  Gold on the other hand, looks ready to begin another climb if it can get above the declining tops line in the next few sessions.  Perhaps even tomorrow if we get some upside follow through.  My hope is that I'm not too late but that may be the case.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The market continues to simply hang around here, just shy of new all time highs.  Is it a top or a consolidation before we break out?  The Dow rose 45 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We remain short term overbought for the major averages.  Bad news for the semiconductor sector didn't stick.  The market climbed in the final hour.  Yesterdays bearish candlesticks look like they're a precursor for sideways action instead of a decline.  No new market moving headlines today.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added a point while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  I'm still trying to figure out which way the precious metals are going to go here.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  We do have the Fed in a week and I do not think that they will be cutting rates again at this particular meeting.  That is my best guess as of today.  That would not be bullish for the precious metals and I am considering canceling my order before the announcement.  I could be wrong of course but I have to consider all the possibilities.  If the Fed stands pat I do believe that we'd see a sell off in stocks.  I my try the SPY November puts ahead of the meeting if we continue to be overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains below the 16 level and volatility has taken a break for now.  That isn't the usual October pattern but it is for now.  So for now it looks like I'll just let this week go by and try to trade off of the Fed next week.  Europe and Asia were mixed with muted price action despite the Brexit delay.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

Lower today as the Dow seemed to begin falling when news of another Brexit failure hit the wires.  The Dow fell 39 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  The major indices remain short term overbought.  Although the averages declined the advance/declines were positive.  This tells me that we are not at the brink of disaster and my original thesis of getting to new all time highs for the S&P 500 is still intact.  It may take longer than this week now though.  The TRAN and RUT both closed higher today and that is a plus.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was higher as well.  Perhaps a small flight to safety move in these instruments after the Brexit delay.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  There is still the implication of a big move coming in precious metals.  I'm still looking for that to be positive but it really could go either way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily candlestick charts for some of the major stock averages now have bearish engulfing patterns.  We'll see if this plays out to lower prices in the days ahead.  The VIX rose today on the late sell off.  It remains below the line of demarcation that I'm putting at the 16 level.  As long as that holds, I'm looking for higher prices.  Not SPY trades in mind right now.  If we do get down to oversold, I may try the SPY November calls.  However, as you can see by the price action today, we're always at the mercy of the next headline.  It's just part of the game that has gotten more common than it used to be.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  That probably will change tonight with the Brexit drama.  It also could cause a rally in gold and the US dollar.  But we'll just have to see how things play out as the story unfolds.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

A bullish start to the week as the Dow gained 57 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Once again the overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  Short term technical indicators remain overbought, which is generally the case in rallies.  My thinking is that new all time highs in the S&P 500 can be achieved this week.  Into the November option cycle now, so the premiums for SPY are high.  There's nothing wrong with waiting for the next trade at this point.  GE lost over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold fell $7 and the US dollar finished little changed.  The flight for safety has cooled down with the lack of US/China trade tension.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was average.  The indicators for the gold shares here have rolled over again and are heading down.  The Bollinger bands continue to contract but we have yet to see the strong move that it implies.  Could go either way here but I am leaving in my open order for the GDX January calls.  I'm also thinking about perhaps trying the November calls as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to be oversold.  What looked to me like a potential bottom here may simply be a sideways zone.  That would imply higher near term prices.  Earnings have been coming in for the market and it hasn't been too bad despite the US/China riff.  If this keeps up then new all time highs will be a forgone conclusion.  It is early in the week though.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  Brexit is still a question mark but the markets don't seem to care anymore.  It has been a long and drawn out soap opera.  We'll see if we get any upside follow through tomorrow.

The Dow took a drop to finish the week as it lost 225 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have started to roll over.  I'm still positive for the market going forward.  Todays big drop in the Dow was not reflective of the overall market.  The advance/declines show that.  Of course we'll keep an eye on things but I do not think that a big decline is coming here.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold dropped a little on the futures as the US dollar was lower once again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  We'll get some gold share earnings out next week and that will move things one way or the other.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX still looks like it's trying to put in a short term bottom here.  If that is the case we could see some more near term weakness for stocks.  But I do think that we are going to make a run at new all time highs in the S&P sooner rather than later.  We got through the option expiration today.  We'll see if there are any breaking headlines over the weekend.  Rolling into the November option cycle on Monday.  Europe and Asia were generally lower to end the week.  I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a positive session on Wall Street today as the Dow rose 24 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but we did come off of the best levels of the day.  Short term overbought and staying that way.  That is the sign of a rally.  I'm expecting new all time highs in the S&P 500, perhaps next week.  No big headlines today and that is another plus.  We haven't had any earnings disasters yet either.  So the trend is for higher prices until further notice.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold finished with just a slight gain as the US dollar was much lower on the day.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added over 1/3 on lighter volume.  The gold shares out performing gold is a plus for the bulls.  Meanwhile my open order for the GDX January calls won't get filled unless we see some weakness in the gold shares price.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for GDX.  I may be too late for this trade but I am not going to adjust my price higher.  Earnings will be due out next week for GOLD and NEM.  This will affect GDX one way or the other.  I still like the idea for the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and appears to be putting in a bottom here on the daily chart.  That would imply weaker prices ahead but if that does occur I do not think that it is the beginning of a new down trend.  I would view it as a pause before higher prices.  My bullish stance here is backed by more than one indicator that I watch.  The positive seasonality is a plus as well.  As I have said, unless we all of a sudden get a negative headline, I'm looking for higher prices.  Expiration Friday is on tap for tomorrow.  Asia was lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe was generally lower as well.  We close out the trading week tomorrow.

No follow through to yesterdays good session as the Dow fell 22 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn up but is in a sideways pattern.  No big headlines in the news today.  We remain short term overbought.  Earnings have yet to be a major market mover.  We are close to another line of resistance for the S&P at 3000.  If we can get through there I do believe new all time highs will be reached shortly.  GE was flat on the day but the volume improves.  Gold bounced back about ten bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Perhaps we're putting in a bottom here for the gold shares as the oversold condition remains in place.  My order for the GDX January calls hasn't been filled and will take a bit more decline or time decay to be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold.  Even if we got a short sell off for the rest of this week, as long as the VIX remains below 16 I'll be positive on the market.  The technical set up from here appears to me to be bullish.  Yes things can change in a hurry on a negative headline but the technical backdrop is constructive in my view.  Only a couple of days to go in option expiration week.  I'll simply be sitting back and watching things at this point.  We'll roll into the November cycle and take it from there.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 237 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up here.  Getting short term overbought on the technical indicators for the major averages.  However there is still room for some more upside.  Headlines are not driving things at the moment.  The technical expectation is for higher prices and that is what we're getting.  New all time highs are within reach.  perhaps the positive expiration week bias will get us there.  GE was up over 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold is losing its luster and was off a dozen today.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU was down almost 2 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was good.  We are now short term oversold for the gold shares and right at the lower Bollinger band.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX January calls.  But we are getting to the moment of truth.  It's entirely possible that gold and the gold shares could break down here.  The contracting Bollinger bands imply a big move and it could go either way.  I'm leaving the option order out there but there is a chance that it could be the wrong move.  I am long term positive on this sector though as the longer range charts have bullish patterns.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is oversold but also now way below the 16 level and that is bullish for the stock market.  Unless we get some negative headline out of the blue, expect new all time highs shortly.  Probably in the NASDAQ indices first and then followed by the S&P.  That's my guess at the moment.  The TRAN and RUT are lagging now but they may even make it back to record levels.  We are also just about to enter the seasonal positive period of November to April.  Things are looking up for stocks in my view.  There will be some earnings disappointments of course.  But overall it appears that we're heading higher.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

We didn't get any follow through to Fridays big day as the Dow lost 29 points on very light volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Some markets were closed today for Columbus day and that explains the low volume.  The VIX is solidly below the 16 level so I do believe that the rally has legs.  Only four days to go in the October option cycle so I don't see myself attempting any SPY trades this week.  That could change with a closer look at the data tonight but the risk would be high.  More overbought here than oversold for the major stock indices.  GE lost almost a dime on light volume.  Gold was up $7 and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got the US/China trade talks out of the way for now so what's the next market mover?  Earnings are on tap to begin again this week.  That should provide some company specific fireworks.  The S&P 500 has formed a triangle on the daily chart with an upside bias.  The weekly chart still shows the bearish megaphone pattern.  This implies that we'll see a near term rally to new all time highs and then a decent drop.  However we're all aware that things rarely stick to the plan in this game.  There's actually enough indecision in my mind to think that anything can happen.  But with the break above the resistance on good volume Friday, I'll have to stick with a bullish bias for now.  The Bollinger bands are still contracting on gold and the gold shares.  So we'll have to wait and see which way things get going there.  I'm banking on the long side.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We saw a big rally today as some type of trade deal is going to be announced.  The Dow gained 320 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index around.  The Dow was up over 500 points but we saw a quick sell off in the final half hour of a couple hundred points.  Not exactly sure what that was.  Many of the major averages broke through the short term resistance trend lines including the S&P 500.  My bearish leaning stance is now over.  Look to purchase calls on weakness going forward unless something comes out of the blue over the weekend.  The technical indicators for the S&P 500 still have room to rise on a short term basis.  Option expiration week generally has a positive bias as well.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold fell $5 but came back up off of its lows for the session.  The US dollar was lower as well.  I'm thinking that some of the flight to safety plays were taken off on the report of a trade deal.  The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX dropped a bit over a point.  Volume was heavy.  Resistance lines held for the gold shares.  The short term technical indicators have rolled back down here.  The medium term as well, with room to go lower.  I'm still leaving my GDX January call option ticket out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tone of the market was positive today despite the late drop.  If the US/China trade deal holds up over the weekend, I would expect more upside on Monday.  The VIX has now closed below the 16 level and I believe that will mean that the rally has legs.  New all time highs for the S&P soon?  We'll see.  The volume picked up today and that is a plus.  Things are now looking positive for the stock market on a technical basis.  Of course the next headline could change things but for now it appears that the bulls will be in control.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend.  With only five days to go in the October option cycle, any SPY trade will have to quick with the increased risk and lack of time.  Europe and Asia finished the week with gains on the trade news.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market continued higher and the Dow gained 150 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  We're still waiting on the results of the US/China trade talks and that should come out tomorrow.  The market will certainly move on any kind of announcement.  I'm still considering getting some SPY October puts at the resistance line of 295 if we get a light volume rise to there.  We are on that path at the moment.  However a positive reaction to a trade deal could result in a high volume break above the resistance line and calls would be in order then.  So we really still don't know which way things will go.  Nothing would surprise me at this point.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  Gold fell a dozen on the futures despite a loss in the US dollar.  The gold shares did not follow though as the XAU was up 2/3 and GDX was unchanged.  Volume was light.  GDX is right at its resistance line along with its 50 day moving average.  I'll be looking to see if we get a high volume breakout here as well.  I'm not exactly sure if that will happen as the trade talks will probably influence movement here as well.  It could very well be a very interesting Friday in the markets.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is trying to roll over here but it closed right on the 50 day moving average and is still above the 16 level.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over here and that gives hope for the bullish cause for stocks.  Some of the major stock indices appear to be on the verge of breaking resistance higher but it hasn't happened yet.  With a declining summation index, I'm still leaning towards a bearish conclusion but that could change rapidly depending on the next headline.  I'll simply be patient for now, not to mention the October option cycle is running out of time.  Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the US/China trade talks and close out the week tomorrow.   

We had a gap back to the upside today as the Dow gained 182 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The market is trying to make up its mind here and so am I.  The light volume today is troublesome for the bulls as there is no conviction behind the rise.  We're still in an area that could make or break things going forward.  All eyes and ears will be on the US/China trade talks taking place for the next two days.  That is a tough way to trade because nobody knows what will come out of that.  The technical indicators could go either way from the levels they're at right now.  I'd like to make a trade at some point but without a clear signal I'm probably going to wait.  GE was up a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares could be affected by the trade talks as well.  Bad news will probably be gold for the yellow metal, while good news just the opposite.  But that's just a guess on my part.  The technical indicators for the gold shares are also in a zone where they could break either way.  I'm leaving my longer term GDX January call option trade out there.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired and need some more rest.  The VIX was lower today and remains overbought.  This indicator has been going back and forth for the past few weeks with an upwards bias.  Until we get back below the 16 level, I'm thinking we're still in an environment that could lead to sell offs.  We are running out of time in the October option cycle but I'm still looking for a trade there.  Being nimble still remains the key in my humble opinion as well.  It's no time to fall in love with ideas as the trading has been choppy.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

More downside action today as the Dow fell 314 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  We closed almost at the low for the day and that is not a positive.  We started the day with a gap to the downside.  The Fed chairman spoke and it did move the market higher for a while.  However things rolled back over in the last couple of hours as the trade talks haven't even started yet but the rhetoric has.  My idea of the SPY October puts has passed its entry point as it is too late now.  I'm not sure how low we go here.  Things would have to turn around quickly to change that assessment.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have rolled back down.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold rose over $10 on the futures in a flight to safety.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was good.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there but it won't be filled anytime soon.  I have a limit order and the price continues to move away from my limit.  I am not going to chase this as there remains plenty of time for some type of decline for the gold shares.  That said, I may have to adjust my thinking to what is going on here.  Perhaps gold is getting ready to start moving gain.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  Missed trades are always a pain.  But you've got to keep moving and look for the next one.  The VIX closed above the twenty level and is getting overbought again.  However in decent downside moves, it can remain overbought.  The S&P 500 is once again on the verge of breaking the up trend line that began in June.  If that happens we could get to support at 2825 in a hurry.  The next support is 100 points lower.  I'm not saying that will happen here but it could.  Any positive news on the US/China trade front will send the market soaring higher but we haven't seen any of that yet.  It may not even occur.  We'll stick with lower prices as long as the summation index continues down.  But it's a market that is moving both ways with a vengeance, so it's a tricky place to be.  I'll consider my next move overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

We begin the week on a down note, with the Doe falling 95 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We tried to get some upside follow through to Fridays huge gains but the market started to roll over in the final two hours.  I did place an order for the SPY October puts but it wasn't filled.  I still may try this idea if we get back to the resistance at around 296 on the SPY.  Inflation data due out this week along with the beige book on Wednesday.  We've got trade talks between the US and China starting on Thursday.  So it could be a headline event situation at some point this week.  In my mind the market could go either way but I will favor the SPY puts if we get some advance in the next couple of sessions.  GE finished flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold fell almost $15 today as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares didn't follow as much with the XAU and GDX showing fractional losses on little volume.  I'm keeping my open order for the GDX January calls out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains above the 16 level and above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  I'm hoping that we get back to 16 there before a real decline takes place.  But hope is not a good trading strategy.  As long as the summation index continues going down, I'm going to stay with a short side bias.  Whether the market cooperates with me being able to make a trade is what will concern me going forward.  Only nine days to go in the October option cycle.  Probably a good idea to be nimble here and not fall in love with any particular idea.  The lack of volume lately certainly isn't a positive.  We'll see if it picks up one way or the other.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  Chine opens again tonight after being on holiday for a week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The bounce continued or perhaps we can call it a rally now as the Dow jumped 372 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Todays action should stall the summation index from moving lower.  The jobs report was in line with expectations but it appears the market is pricing in another rate cut happening soon.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have turned up.  The drawback today was the low volume.  We are also almost at the near term resistance of around 296 on the SPY.  However we cannot ignore the strength of the price movement in the past two days.  It looks like the market is going to go test all time highs again and soon.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar finished little changed.  The gold shares followed the market higher though and that's bullish there.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX gained almost 2/3.  Volume was average.  The short term indicators have turned up here as well.  I'm leaving in my open order for some GDX January calls but don't expect a fill anytime soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has rolled back over but remains above the 16 level.  There is plenty of room to move lower on the short term indicators here.  We have snapped back to the violated up trend line on the NASDAQ.  Another upside day will negate the breakdown that we had there.  The up trend line in the S&P 500 that began in June has held.  So now I will have to question the wisdom of my idea to buy the SPY October puts when we reach resistance, probably on Monday morning.  Perhaps if the volume is light again it might be worth a try but it seems that the market tone has changed in a hurry here.  Yes, we're still at risk of the next headline one way or the other.  However we've seen quite a jump in the past two sessions and that's been just the opposite of the previous two sessions before.  So I'm not exactly sure what to make of what's going on.  I will check all the charts over the weekend and decide what to do.  Hopefully.  Europe and Asia were higher to close the week with the exception of Hong Kong.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We got a bounce today as the Dow was up by 122 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market sold off early in the morning but made it all the way back and closed near the highs for the session.  For now all we can say is that it's a bounce because the summation index is still moving down.  Tomorrows employment report could turn things back down.  I think that I'll wait and see if we make it back to the declining tops line on the S&P 500.  At that point I'll maybe try the SPY October puts.  That line is still pretty far from where we are.  I also think that the trades here for the S&P need to be short and sweet.  GE was up twenty cents on good volume.  Gold rose $5 as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on OK volume.  The gold shares haven't followed gold here lately as they were before.  The outperformance of the gold shares previously was a strong positive for the precious metal complex.  Now that dynamic has changed.  I do still like the gold shares longer term and have kept open my order for the GDX January calls.  However the pinching of the Bollinger bands on gold has me concerned if we break hard to the downside.  Hasn't happened yet but I'm keeping an eye on it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is overbought and did reverse today.  That is a plus for the bulls.  RUT managed to turn up today as well.  But we aren't out of the woods by any means as of yet.  I will say though that some of my medium term tools have reached a point where a bottom could form.  But we'll have to see how the week closes.  Tomorrow should be interesting.  The weekly indicators for the S&P are mid-range, so there's still room to go lower there.  Short term is oversold.  Without a clear signal, I'm inclined to wait things out until next week.  Europe and Asia were lower, we'll see if they bounce tonight as well.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.  

No doubt the direction now as the Dow fell 494 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  RUT has led the way down and it wasn't wrong.  The question now turns to how low do we go?  You can make a case for a double top on the S&P 500.  If that's the case then we're going much lower, perhaps down to the 2700 level or so.  The 200 day moving average might be the first resting place and that's around 50 S&P points lower.  We are short term oversold for the major stock averages but may simply stay that way.  I'm not sure if I will look for a place to try and play a bounce.  Perhaps waiting for a bounce to short is the way to go.  I'd expect more volatility on Fridays jobs report.  GE fell a dime on average volume.  Gold found buyers and rose $20 back above the $1500 level.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added a buck and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  The gold shares didn't follow the metal with the same zest as it recently has.  I did place an order for the GDX January calls but it will take a drop to get filled.  I'm now also considering the GDX November calls as the trading environment has changed in the past couple of sessions.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed above 20 today and remains short term overbought.  This is another reason that I believe that a short term bounce is inevitable.  But the timing remains a problem as usual.  I also don't have the guts to try anything ahead of Fridays employment report.  Probably the prudent path would be to wait and see if the S&P 500 gets to its 200 day moving average and perhaps try the bounce there.  For SPY that would be around the 281 level.  However keep in mind that the volatility level has risen and trades should probably have a short time frame, especially for the S&P 500.  We are headed lower it's just a matter of how much.  October is already living up to its reputation.  The Bollinger bands are beginning to pinch on the gold and gold share charts.  That implies a big move is coming.  Which way is the question but I'm banking on the upside.  The short term technical indicators have started to turn back up for both gold and the gold shares as well.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight and I'd expect more of the same tonight.  We'll keep an eye on things.   

The Dow got clobbered today and fell 343 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower with intent.  Any ideas that I had of getting the SPY October calls are gone in the near term.  The NASDAQ has broken its up trend line that began in June.  The major stock indices are short term oversold but now will probably remain that way.  Weak economic data was the cause for todays decline and all the major averages took a hit.  The TRAN got clobbered as well.  RUT was the canary in the coal mine as it has been dropping mostly straight down for about two weeks.  The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average.  GE fell 1/3 on good volume.  Gold bounced back $15 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume.  I'm considering putting in the GDX January call order here but it will take more of a decline in the gold shares for it to get filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed above 18 today and the short term indicators are overbought.  That could imply that this decline doesn't have legs.  Of course the market will usually do what is least expected and the VIX can always remain overbought.  However with the S&P already oversold this isn't a move lower that I'm going to chase just yet.  Fridays employment report should be the next big moving data point.  The small stocks are generally the leaders, so the NASDAQ breaking of the up trend line should be a clue.  That line comes in at around 290 for the SPY.  So should we expect a break there as well?  That's the question in my mind at the moment.  Or is that the spot to try the SPY October calls?  Always plenty of questions in the game.  Probably my best course of action here will be inaction as I'm not convinced about one way or the other.  Early today would have been the time to get short in retrospect.  How long the decline lasts is another question that will need to be answered.  For now I think that I'll wait for Friday but that could change overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.