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Friday, October 19, 2018

A lot of hanging around on expiration Friday as the Dow rose 64 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were lower.  The summation index continues down.  The daily charts for the major stock indices remain oversold.  The weekly chart indicators have all rolled over as well.  RUT is already challenging its recent lows and another day like today will break them.  The daily VIX chart looks like it wants to spike up again.  We're rolling into the November option cycle and the premiums are high.  At this rate for price movement the next signal will be a buy if we continue lower into next week.  But it feels like the market is in a precarious state of affairs at the moment.  GE was up almost twenty cents again and the volume remains heavy.  Gold finished little changed and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market tried to stabilize this week and it at least did that.  But it was because of one huge upside session and it hasn't done anything since.  In down trends rallies appear out of nowhere and that day certainly qualifies for that.  The next thing to watch is what happens if we test the recent lows.  If things hold up we are probably out of the woods for now.  If not, we'll have to see how low it goes.  A 10% correction on the SPY would take us to 264.  We're at 276 now.  We have crossed through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator and the summation index.  The zero line on the oscillator has proved to be resistance thus far.  Getting above that line would be a plus for the bulls and would start to turn things positive once again.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Ideally I'd like to see a lower low for price with a higher oscillator reading for a positive divergence.  The recent low for the McClellan oscillator was -294.  I do think that we'll stay above that level going forward but I've been wrong before.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with something.  I'm hopeful that some kind of valid trading signal will appear in the coming days.  But I'll try not to push things.  Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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