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Monday, October 15, 2018

A lot of back and forth today but when we closed the Dow was off 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower and is through the zero line.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but RUT did close higher.  I thought about trades both ways today but I think that the wise thing to do here would be to let this expiration week pass and go from there.  Volatility was less today and the short term technical indicators here have rolled over.  But that doesn't mean we couldn't see a spike at some point this week and a drop in prices.  I'll try not to attempt a trade this week unless there is a valid signal.  At this rate I doubt we'll get one.  GE was off over 1/8 as volume contracted but is still above average.  Gold added eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was good.  The daily GDX chart shows a valid head and shoulders bottom with a breakout.  If we wander back to the neckline at 19, that would be the spot to try the GDX calls.  I'm keeping an eye on it as that could be the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Completely oversold on the short term technical indicators for most of the major averages.  That doesn't mean that we can't stay that way as the chart of RUT proves that.  But I have to believe that we're getting to some kind of washout point here within the next few days.  Look for heavy volume and you'll know that we're there.  I do think that we'll be choppy now for a while as big breaks usually work out that way.  I'm not looking for any new all time highs.  What we are seeing now could be a repeat of a week ago when the market sold off a bit but did not bounce.  If so we'll soon see lower prices and perhaps a completion of the five wave down pattern that appears to be forming on the S&P 500.  If that is the case a look at the calls before the end of the week could be in order.  But we haven't figured out anything just yet.  As always, the market will go where it wants.  Asia sold off again and Europe was slightly higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading. 

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