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Tuesday, October 16, 2018

A huge move up from a deeply oversold condition as the Dow soared 547 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here just through the zero line.  It looks like it will make it but we'll see by the end of the week.  Buying the SPY calls yesterday showed nice profits today.  If I was inclined, I would buy the SPY October puts tomorrow on any strength but it's just probably too risky for me.  This was a rally out of nowhere that I was looking for last week.  It looks like most of the major stock indices have held their 200 day moving averages for now.  But RUT led us down and is still below its 200 day.  It foreshadowed the rally today with yesterdays positive action.  I'd keep a close eye on it for clues going forward.  I do not think that we're heading back to new all time highs anywhere soon but I could be wrong.  Let's see how the rest of the week plays out.  GE was off a nickel and volume was pretty heavy.  Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned lower and the short term technical indicators have turned down as well.  We'll see what happens when it get back to the 200 day moving average at around the 15 level.  That would be the spot to try the SPY puts again if you're so inclined.  I may or may not.  We'll get the Fed minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  If the VIX somehow gets down to 15 before the Fed minutes, I'll try the SPY puts for a short term trade.  I doubt that will happen but you never know.  Todays move in the market was impressive but I've seen this happen before.  On the plus side the summation index is trying to turn around.  However todays gains were from an extremely oversold condition, with short covering occurring at the same time.  So any follow through will have to be watched closely.  It does appear that my five wave down theory was wrong though.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

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