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Thursday, October 04, 2018

Volatility made a comeback today as the Dow fell 200 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to the downside.  The McClellan oscillator should be blown out to the downside here, which would imply a bounce.  My work that indicated a bounce for the past couple of days was obviously wrong.  I tried to chase todays move lower but eventually just canceled my open SPY put orders.  That said, if we see some upside on the jobs report tomorrow, I'll be trying the SPY October puts.  However it could be that we've seen whatever decline was coming in todays price action and that would be it.  But I'm not betting on that scenario.  We were off 350 points at some point today during the session.  Overseas markets were weak and interest rates have risen.  Those were the excuses today but we've seen the weak, deteriorating technical situation unfold beforehand.  The ideal time to purchase the SPY puts has passed but that doesn't mean that we still can't make some money to the downside.  We'll see.  GE managed a gain of over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was flat on the session, with the US dollar a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on OK volume.  The gold shares are holding up well and the GDX calls are a buy the next time they get oversold in my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Rut has led the way lower and continues to do so today.  The technical indicators here are oversold and staying that way.  This is a condition that won't stay that way forever.  Two weeks and a day left for the October option cycle.  The game plan now is this: any strength tomorrow can be shorted and we'll go from there.  I'll be looking at the SPY October puts and will purchase something if we get a pop to the upside.  Early negative action will be harder to trade and if that occurs I may just have to sit things out until next week.  I'll have to see the numbers tonight and go from there.  Usually when we get a shock like today there's more to come.  But that doesn't guarantee more downside, it just puts the odds of it in your favor.  So we'll see what the employment report looks like and the markets reaction to it.  Interest rates are very overbought here as well and that condition won't last forever either.  Asia and Europe sold off too.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow. 

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