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Wednesday, October 10, 2018

The market fell apart today as the Dow got clobbered and lost 831 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is falling rapidly.  We are approaching the zero line in the summation index and that is the crash zone.  It appears like we're already there after today price action.  Oversold and staying there as the market has no buyers.  RUT is well below its 200 day moving average and has led us lower.  The TRAN sliced through its 200 day moving average as well.  I tried to get the SPY October puts but failed.  In retrospect, I should have just gotten some on the first drop last week but just wasn't quick enough again.  Of course I did not expect the drop to occur so quickly this week.  We never did get a bounce back to get short.  I'm now looking at the SPY October calls for a bounce as we are way overdone to the downside.  This could simply be a catch the falling knife attempt but some of the technical indicators are so blown out that the market has to find a bit of relief.  I think that weakness tomorrow can be bought but I'm not exactly sure from what level.  The S&P 500 is at the near term support right now.  Of course staying on the sidelines is a choice here as well.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  Not a real flight to safety here yet.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls if and when it gets oversold on a daily basis.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I waited for this decline to take shape yet do not own any SPY puts.  However I do feel now that we are in a sell the rally market.  I also think that the original thesis of the bull market being over with the A-B-C-D-E rally from the 2009 lows is now in place.  RUT has broken its up trend line from the 2016 lows and the S&P 500 did the same today.  The TRAN as well.  We'll have to see where we close out the week on those but if the RUT is already far away from that line, the others should follow.  The Dow has yet to break that up trend from 2016.  Today did seem like a panic though, so a bounce could be in the offing soon.  Whether or not I give the calls a try is the question.  So we've entered a crazy time in October again.  It's usually a good buying opportunity longer term.  But we can't say where the ultimate low will be just yet.  If the bull market is over, buying here won't matter because there will be lower prices coming down the road.  The volume today was about 10 to 1 negative and that could be a blow off to the downside in the short term.  We'll have to see how the market opens tomorrow and go from there.  The 200 day moving average for the SPY comes in at 274.  That would be a spot to try the SPY October calls if you so desire.  I may take a shot there myself.  We'll see.  Overseas market were weak.  The trading tonight could get ugly.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.     

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