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Friday, October 05, 2018

Still to the downside as the market is oversold and staying there.  The Dow fell 180 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator should be in the minus 200 level or so.  A bounce is due.  I would use that bounce to establish a short position as I believe that we are not done with the selling by any means.  The S&P 500 did hold on to its 50 day moving average but the short term technical indicators are not completely oversold yet.  The RUT bounced off of its 200 day moving average and is very oversold.  Could things hold up here?  Perhaps but I don't think so.  What I'd look for is a rally next week out of nowhere of about 200 points on the Dow.  Rallies from nowhere are hallmarks of a down trend.  Such a rally would give you a chance to purchase some index puts for the next move lower.  If the rally lasted more than a couple of days you would know that the scenario wouldn't work.  I'll be looking for such a rally.  GE bucked the tend again and gained 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The jobs report was a bit weaker than expected but it wasn't the market mover I thought it would be.  We just hung around after today open and then started to fall.  The market did come off of its worst levels but the trend is clearly down.  The Dow was off 325 points intra-day.  The NASDAQ has broken below its 50 day moving average as well.  This is a move worth chasing in my humble opinion.  My work has been off here lately but I'm a firm believer that we'll most likely see lower prices going into the expiration in two weeks.  The trick will be to find a quick rally to establish a short position.  The market doesn't usually cooperate and it may not this time as well.  We could simply keep dropping.  If that is the case we'll simply have to change direction and look for a spot to get long.  But we certainly aren't there yet.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Europe and the Asian market that were open closed lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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