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Friday, October 26, 2018

Rock and roll seems to be the name of the game now as the Dow fell 296 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  At least today we didn't close on the lows of the session but I do think that the action was sloppy at best.  No follow through to yesterdays gains.  GDP came in good but it doesn't matter when we are in a market like this.  Which is why it is always a good idea to stick with the technical basis.  We're still oversold and staying that way as the decline continues.  I did place an open order for the SPY November calls but it did not come close to being filled.  This is a risky idea but I do feel at some point it will work.  I may try it again on weakness Monday.  But it would have to be short term in nature.  We've seen volume really pick up in the past few days.  What I'd like to see is a blowout downside move on heavy volume that would qualify as a washout.  Today could have been it.  But you don't want to start basing things on guessing in this game.  Another problem with trading here is the option premiums have gone through the roof due to the volatility.  Both puts and calls are expensive.  GE was down another 1/2 on heavy volume.  The gold futures were up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on heavy volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The positive divergences that I've spoke of this week are still in place.  So a better move up from here is still possible.  The problem here is that there has been no sustained buying lately, just sustained selling.  I do think that everybody now recognizes that fact.  When everyone is on one side of the trade it usually pays to take the other.  That's another reason to maybe try the calls on Monday.  I'm going to have to look everything over this weekend and decide.  I was willing to try that trade today but it would have taken a much bigger drop to get my order filled.  The VIX is over 24 so any price moves will be big going forward.  But it cuts both ways.  I suppose I'll just have to evaluate where I think we're at in the next two days and try to decide if the risk is worth it.  These are some interesting times though.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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