The Dow managed to hold on to a gain of 55 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The market dropped in the final hour to erase much of the days gains.  We were up close to 300 points on the Dow early on.  The price action has been sloppy lately.  The VIX remains above the 15 level and that spells volatility.  Perhaps today was the day to try the SPY July puts.  Next week would ordinarily be slow with a positive 4th of July holiday bias.  But with the market acting weak lately I suppose anything can happen.  GE was off about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold was only up a few bucks despite a big drop in the US dollar.  The gold shares perked up though.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was good.  Was it the end of the quarter or month type of buying or is this the beginning of what I am looking for?  I'll be keeping a closer eye on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain oversold.  We have yet to see any sustained bounce upwards.  I'll be looking for some upside before trying the SPY July puts.  We still have 3 weeks left in the July option cycle so there is plenty of time to attempt a trade.  I'm inclined to just let next week go by but we'll have to see how things go.  The trading is never easy.  There's also the possibility that the summer doldrums show up and that is not the type of environment that enhances speculative trading.  So we'll see.  For now I'll check the charts over the weekend and try and come up with a game plan going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in overnight trade.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got a much needed bounce today but the Dow did finish off of its best levels with selling in the final hour.  The Dow rose 98 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  However with the summation index heading down, the path of least resistance is lower.  The VIX is still above 15.  I think that I will let the July 4th holiday pass next week before I consider attempting another trade.  Markets could be thin next week as traders may take the whole week off.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  I suppose the ideal situation would be a light volume rise to the halfway point and a roll over there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was off $6.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had negative prices activity for the past couple of weeks.  Now it could be a set up for the usual summer rally or it could be the beginning of a corrective phase.  We had not seen any sustained selling for a while and now we have had it.  So what happens from here will have a direct impact on what goes on this summer in my opinion.  Looking back on the first half of the year, my trading has been abysmal and I am currently in the middle of a prolonged losing streak.  I have made a trading tactics adjustment with the stop loss orders but it hasn't really helped except with limiting the losses.  I've dug myself quite a hole to get out of but there is still plenty of time this year to turn things around.  We'll see.  Asia and Europe were lower last night.  We'll close out the week, the month and the first half of the year tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 165 points on good volume.  We were up at one point close to 300 points.  The advance/declines were a bit over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Today looks like it would have been a good time to get some SPY puts if you were nimble enough.  I wasn't.  Oversold and staying there for stocks and that will translate into lower prices going forward.  The VIX remains above the 15 level.  As long as it stays above there, things will be volatile.  No real news to speak of for todays movement as the market is weighing on itself.  We did have buyers in the morning but sellers reappeared with a vengeance.  I suppose we'll see how low we go.  I would like to get some SPY July puts but it looks like it's too late for that.  GE was up about 1/4 and the volume is still heavy.  It finished well off of the highs for the day though.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar climbed.  The flight to safety is taking place in the dollar but certainly not gold.  I do not know the reason why but the normal inverse relationship between these two is in place.  However gold is usually viewed as a safe haven but not so far this time around.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that is not a positive.  The Dow is trying to hold the 200 day moving average but closed below it today.  Ditto for the TRAN.  Could the Dow be the leader lower here this time?  I'm still inclined to be thinking that this won't be some kind of blow out downside move because the small stocks have not led the way lower.  This line of thought has served me well in the past.  We are now short term oversold on the technical indicators for all the major stock indices.  I'd like to see a more than one day bounce for the indexes but the market may not cooperate.  Perhaps next week as the July 4th holiday period is generally bullish.  So we'll see.  For now I'll just have to let this week pass and go from there.  Asia sold off last night but Europe closed higher.  We'll keep an eye on tonights price action.  

The market tried to bounce today but is was pretty anemic.  The Dow rose 30 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  The Dow closed 100 points from the high of the session.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  I still think that we're heading lower going forward.  The VIX did drop today but we're still over the 15 level.  Like I said before, I'm not sure what is going on here but sellers have returned.  I'm not sure if traders are locking in first half profits or what.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  The price action today was sloppy in my humble opinion.  GE saw a spike on comments from the CEO.  It rose a point on very heavy volume.  It appears to have formed a double bottom on the daily chart.  The measuring objective would be 18 if that's the case.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU and GDX ended little changed though.  Volume was very light.  There remains no interest in owning the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN is oversold and trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average.  It is sometimes a leader so I'll be keeping my eye on that.  But I do feel as though the tone of the market has changed after Monday.  I'll be looking to short any SPY rally if we get one.  I'm also considering sitting on the sidelines until there is a decent technical signal as well.  It's been a rough first half of the trading year for me.  Sometimes a break is what's needed to have a better frame of mind for the trading endeavor.  At least my trading management has come around but booking small losses still adds up.  For now I'm probably going to let this week go by before considering the next SPY trade.  Next week will have the July 4th holiday smack in the middle.  The usual time around July 4th is normally bullish for the market.  Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The market got clobbered today but did manage to finish off of the lows.  The Dow fell 328 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We were off close to 500 points during the session.  Trade tariffs will be the convenient excuse but it's more than that.  The Dow has been down for 9 of the last 10 trading days.  That says something and it isn't positive.  My original thesis of the market reaching its top in January will hold true for the big caps.  I don't see them coming back to new all time highs this year.  The S&P 500 is oversold now for the short term.  The short term technical indicators for the small stocks have rolled over.  I'm not exactly sure what the story is here but rallies can now be shorted in my opinion.  GE was off almost 1/3 on good volume.  Gold and the US dollar were both slightly lower.  The XAU fell 1 1/2 while GDX was off fractionally.  Volume was light.  Oversold for the gold shares and I'm looking at the longer term calls still.  Haven't made up my mind on whether this is a viable trading idea yet or not.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I got stopped out of my SPY July call trade early this morning for a 30% loss.  I can deal with that because without the stop loss order the pain would have been worse.  Once again my trading in the SPY remains terrible.  Perhaps a vacation from that is in the cards going forward.  We should see an oversold bounce here soon.  The quality and duration of the bounce will tell us a lot about the markets overall condition.  So we'll see.  When the market starts to act like it did today, caution is advised.  The VIX surged to almost 20 and that is the highest reading since early April.  Whether or not it has more to go, I don't know.  Where the market goes from here, I don't know.  We do have the end of the month coming on Friday.  There's also a few readings on the economy due out as well.  We're obviously oversold here and some kind of bounce is due.  Asia and Europe were both lower as well.  It seemed like a worldwide retreat from stocks on Monday.  So we'll see where we go tomorrow.     

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 119 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ negative.  This is a change from the recent market activity.  I'm not sure why the volume was so heavy today.  Maybe summer vacations are starting early.  My SPY July calls are still only showing a very small profit even after todays gains.  The VIX retreated today but the tone of the market is in the process of changing in my opinion.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the small stocks as well.  I now don't think that the call buying strategy here is appropriate.  I really should not hold on to this position too long despite the long length of time left in this option cycle.  GE got a bounce and was up almost 1/3 on good volume.  It's trying to hold on to its last line of support.  Gold was just slightly higher despite weakness in the US dollar.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/4.  Volume was average.  The weekly Bollinger bands for GDX are the tightest that they have been in years.  When this breaks out you can probably just jump on board because the move should be worthwhile.  The question is which way is it going to go?  I'm still leaning towards the bullish cause and am still keeping an eye on the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I have the SPY calls here and the market just isn't acting as well as it has in the recent past.  The small stocks are not the leaders here lately.  Perhaps that will change next week.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower and are not completely oversold as of yet.  I'll need to see then turn around to fell better about this trade.  We did get some buying today as expected but the market dropped off rapidly in the final half hour.  That isn't a positive.  I suppose I'll hope for some early strength next week and most likely get out of this trade.  I do have a stop loss order in if we simply start the new week lower.  The trading is never easy.  What looked like a good idea yesterday when I took this SPY call position, doesn't look as promising today.  I'll look things over again this weekend and take it from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

The Dow continued its losing streak today, dropping yet another 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This will move the summation index lower.  The overall market was weak today along with the Dow.  It seems as if now the buyers have stepped back.  Where previously we had no sellers, we now have no buyers.  That said, some of my short term technical indicators are now oversold and I did adjust my open order for the SPY July calls today so it would get filled.  They are showing a slight profit.  We are overdue for at least a short term bounce in the indices.  I'm not sure that we'll get much more than that but perhaps the summer rally will begin.  Unless the market is about to simply fall out of bed here, I feel pretty good about the odds for success with this trade.  GE dropped over an 1/8 on good volume.  We are about to break the near term support here.  Gold was off $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU had a slight fractional loss, while GDX was unchanged on very light volume.  There's no interest in the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm now in the next trade.  I did not expect to get involved this early in the expiration schedule but I think the opportunity is now.  I do not expect to hold on to this trade that long because the market action here to me is peculiar.  The Dow is very short term oversold here and hasn't been positive for eight days in a row.  But with the small stocks not participating in the decline yet, I feel as though the overall bullish bias remains intact.  The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are not completely oversold but they are in the area that has turned things around recently.  If that is the case again this time around, this trade should be profitable.  But with the stock market, you never know.  The market has a mind of its own.  However I do believe that the odds are in my favor for this particular trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Dow was lower again today as it shed 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues sideways.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were both positive again.  The relative strength remains with the small caps and as long as that is the case you cannot be too bearish on the near term market outlook.  RUT set another new all time high today.  I did place an open order for some SPY July calls overnight but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving it out there.  However it might be too late for this idea s the ideal buy time may have passed.  GE fell a few cents on pretty good volume.  GE is being kicked out of the Dow.  There's no love for GE.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures and the US dollar ended the day little changed.  Gold has fallen below the $1280 level.  No love for gold either.  But I am still considering the longer term gold share calls on a drop to the 200 week moving average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow had now dropped for 7 straight days.  We haven't seen that type of price action for a while.  Yet the overall market remains strong.  The VIX had a one day spike and now we're back below the 13 level.  I really think that the market wants to move higher here but the short term technical indicators do remain overbought.  I'll leave in the order for the SPY July calls for another day and take it from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another downer for the Dow as it lost 287 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading sideways.  Trade tensions again as the tariff talk heats up again.  The overall market remains much stronger than the Dow despite falling here.  As long as that is the case, I do not expect a full on rout.  I am considering a short term trade for the SPY July calls but we may have already passed the optimum point for that.  I'll check the charts again tonight and go from there.  GE fell 1/4 on good volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks as the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT continues to shine and since it's usually the leader this decline in the overall market should not last long.  That's my best guess at the moment.  I may attempt a trade here but it would strictly be short term in nature.  The option premiums for July remain prohibitive.  The market has had a gap down at the open for a few days in a row now, only to make up ground throughout the trading session.  You will know the decline is ready to really get going when the buying during the day dries up.  Hasn't happened yet.  Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Lower to begin the week for the Dow as it lost 103 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We started off lower for all the major stock indices today but there was buying throughout the session.  Trade war talk over the weekend contributed to the selling in my mind.  The NASDAQ made it all the way back to the black.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the Dow but not the small stocks.  RUT set another new all time high today.  I'm still in favor of higher prices going forward for now.  But we are way overdue for some type of sustained decline.  GE dropped a dime on average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  $1280 is an important level for gold.  If we don't hold up here perhaps the 200 day moving average at $1235 will hold.  But we haven't broken $1280 yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  We've made it through the June option expiration.  We've rolled into the July option cycle but the premiums are extremely high.  I'm going to have to wait for a decent signal before attempting the next SPY trade.  The overbought condition is keeping me from attempting the calls here.  However I haven't been successful lately with the SPY puts.  So on it goes.  I'd expect the summer doldrums to turn up at any time as well.  So for now I'm going to watch and wait.  We've got the Fed head in a panel discussion on Wednesday so that may move things one way or the other.  Not much on the economic data this week.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight.  

Lower in general today although we did finish off of the lows for the session.  The Dow fell 84 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  Once again the overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and that's a positive.  The VIX closed below 12 despite some volatility today.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages remain overbought.  That sounds like a broken record lately.  Over and over the technical condition remains the same.  Along with the small stocks having the best relative strength.  As long as this continues, the trend will be for higher prices going forward.  This will eventually change.  When, is the question that needs to be answered.  GE was off about another 1/4 and volume picked up.  Gold took a hit today, down $25.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was very heavy.  It is important for the $1280 level to hold for gold or we will probably be going a lot lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  On to the July option cycle with an extra week in it and high premiums.  It looks like I'll be watching and waiting now for a while before the next trade attempt.  The market remains incredibly resilient.  News one way or the other is not affecting things and all dips are being bought.  My thinking is that the summer rally has already begun.  Whether or not the S&P 500 sets new all time highs remains to be seen.  However I will say that with RUT having already gotten there, perhaps my theory of the end of the bull market from 2009 is wrong.  If the S&P sets a new all time high then the theory will be dead.  But it hasn't happened yet.  RUT is usually a leader both up and down though.  For now we can look at the market that it is overbought and staying that way.  That much we can agree on.  I don't have any solid ideas for trades right now but I am still considering the longer term gold share calls.  Todays drop doesn't change my mind about that but I will wait until we're oversold on the indicators there.  That could take a couple of weeks or so.  For now I'll try and remain patient.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

More bouncing around today as the Dow dropped 25 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index has now turned sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  As long as that is the situation I'm expecting higher prices going forward.  The S&P 500 has basically moved sideways for the last week.  We'll wait and see which way it breaks out.  Odds favor moving up despite the chronic short term overbought condition.  No matter the news, the market always seems to have buyers.  Any selling is for a day or two at the most.  Until that changes, the trend is up.  GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up.  GE did not make it up through its 50 day moving average.  Gold rose about $5 on the futures despite the US dollar having a huge gain today.  The ECB meeting today had a dovish tone and the Argentine currency is crashing.  Perhaps we saw some flight to safety moves today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves higher today on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The positive market bias was in full swing this week as the market had numerous reasons to sell off but did not.  Some of the small stock indices set new all time highs today.  Money continues to flow into US stocks.  You cannot fight that.  The VIX is around the 12 level.  Volatility has shrunk and we about to roll into summer.  It appears that the summer rally started in the beginning of June.  How long it lasts, who knows?  We are going to roll into the July option cycle on Monday.  There is an extra week in that cycle so the premiums are expensive.  I will probably remain on the sidelines until July but we'll see where the market takes us.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the option expiration as we close out the week tomorrow. 

Finally some downside today after the Fed as the Dow lost 119 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index may start to head sideways here.  We bounced around after the Fed announcement but sold off again in the final half hour.  Could this be the beginning of some type of sustained decline?  Maybe.  We're still short term overbought on the major index technical indicators.  I did not attempt the SPY June puts again today but I did think about it.  There are some signs that things are getting just a little too bullish.  The problem is that the July option cycle has an extra week so the premiums are pretty pricey right here.  So I suppose I'll just have to remain on the sidelines for now.  We'll get some noise from the ECB tomorrow.  That could move things around as well.  GE was off almost a dime on light volume.  Gold finished up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  The gold shares have been consolidating for months.  The prudent thing to do is wait for the break out and then jump on board.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days to go in expiration week.  Today the overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  The small stocks continue to act better than the big caps and that has been an ongoing theme.  That is bullish.  As long as things remain this way the path of lest resistance remains up.  The S&P 500 has yet to get back to its all time high set in January.  So there is still some chance that my underlying theory of the completion of a 5 wave up pattern here is correct.  But for now signs point to higher prices and my thesis for the S&P may prove to be wrong.  If we get a summer rally that will probably be the case.  The market is overdue for a pause in my opinion and now is a good a time as any.  The VIX still remains low though and below my threshold of 15 for a breakout of volatility.  I'll be simply watching and waiting for the time being.  Asia was mixed and Europe as well overnight.  We'll see if there is any downside follow through tomorrow.

An up and down session of waiting around in my opinion as the Dow lost a point and a half on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index continues higher.  As usual the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  That has been the pattern for quite some time, with the small stocks out performing again.  The trend is up and there doesn't seem to be anything in the way of higher prices.  The media buzz is bullish.  The Singapore summit was viewed as positive even though it appeared to be more show than substance.  We'll get the Fed announcement tomorrow.  I'm looking at the SPY June puts but I'm in no hurry to purchase them.  Perhaps if we get extremely oversold tomorrow on some of the indicators, I'll give them a try.  But it does look like the powers that be are looking to run things up into the expiration on Friday.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  Just below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold lost 3 bucks as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we'll wait and see what the Fed has to say.  Technically the market remains short term overbought.  I've noticed that when some of the intra-day indicators roll over that the market really doesn't go down that much.  That is bullish activity.  the declines are shallow to sideways and the market recovers to move higher.  RUT set a new all time high today.  It has been the leader and the signal has been good.  The signal for a big move from the McClellan oscillator on Friday did not pan out.  TRAN has just broken out above the near term resistance.  All signs point to higher prices for now.  A move higher in NYA would further validate the rally.  It is probably a good idea for me to simply watch and wait.  Asia was higher with Europe mixed to lower overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has in store for us tomorrow.

Barely higher today as we sold off in the final half hour.  The Dow gained 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was a bit stronger than the Dow.  The McClellan oscillator gave another signal for a big move on Friday within the next two sessions.  We'll see if that comes to fruition tomorrow.  I am still considering the SPY June puts but today may have been the time to get them.  However with just 4 days left in the June option cycle I'm really not inclined to make another trade this month unless things line up just right.  That may or may not happen.  For now I'll simply sit back and wait for the Fed.  We've got the meeting of the US and North Korea early tomorrow.  Any news good or bad could move things in the short term.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the day little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow has had a nice run but not to new all time highs as the small cap indices.  We're short term overbought on the major stock indexes any way you look at it.  We've been overbought for a little over a week and it hasn't mattered.  There's plenty of news and data out this week.  Perhaps volatility will pick up.  With the trading losses that I took last week I'm a little gun shy at this point or I would have tried the SPY puts again today.  It's probably best for me to just sit back and stay on the sidelines.  Like I've already said, unless things really line up about perfectly, I'm not going to take another loss this week.  We'll see what happens.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  All eyes and ears will be on the Singapore summit tomorrow morning.

The market continues to climb as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  No news or data to really speak of but the sellers have vanished.  I got stopped out of my SPY June put trade for a 35% loss.  I didn't want to get stopped out before the weekend but the market goes where it wants.  That makes it two losing trades this week as my ideas are going nowhere.  Will I try this trade again next week?  I'm not exactly sure at this point.  It just isn't working as we have remained short term overbought for days.  At the rate I'm going when it finally does work I'll be owning the SPY calls.  My confidence obviously isn't where it needs to be.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  No trades in mind here.  Gold was flat and the US dollar edged a little higher.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the loss.  At least I get the management of the trade correct again by sticking with a stop loss after the fill.  It's been a horrendous first half of the year so far for my in the trading department.  Yet I'm still here thinking about trying the SPY June puts again if we get to 2800 on the S&P.  However with the weekend upon us, I may simply have to take a step back and hit the sidelines next week.  Julys option cycle has an extra month, so the premiums will be high.  I am still considering the longer term gold share calls.  Perhaps next week after the Fed will be the time to try that idea.  But that's just a guess at this point.  The small stocks are still leading the way here and as long as that's the case I suppose long is the only way to go.  Why I haven't listened to that, I don't know.  Some of the small stock technical indicators have been overbought for a month.  So I do think that some type of drop is imminent.  But will it be next week?  It would have the positive expiration bias to fight for one thing.  We've got the US/North Korea summit on the geo-political front to deal with.  Also the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Inflation numbers and retail sales as well.  So there will be opportunities for short term trading to be sure.  Unfortunately for me, the short term trading is not where I do well.  I've got that to deal with as well.  So perhaps the sidelines is where I'm headed but you don't make any money there.  But you don't lose any either.  I'll consider the choices over the weekend.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight as the discord of the weekends G-7 meetings took center stage overseas.  The US market was able to ignore it after the futures sold off overnight.  There are no sellers for now.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  the summation index is moving higher.  The small stocks were negative today and the S&P 500 had a slight loss.  RUT was lower and the VIX had a little spike.  Perhaps we're at a near term high or maybe not.  Tomorrows price action could tell a lot.  My position in the SPY June puts is showing a small loss and I may be stopped out tomorrow.  It wouldn't be the end of the world but I do think that there's some weakness coming.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain overbought.  GE was up about 1/8 on OK volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today had the feel of simply a pause in the action for profit taking.  There wasn't any major economic news and the recent geo-political worries have faded.  There is a G-7 meeting this weekend but nothing is expected to come out of that.  We've got the US/North Korea summit next Tuesday followed by the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Perhaps we'll get some market movement out of that.  For now we'll have to see how we close out the week tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll finish up the first trading week of June tomorrow.

The Dow powered ahead today and roared higher by 346 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were once again just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  It appears that the summer rally has begun early.  All signs seem to point to even higher prices going forward.  Perhaps we will just run things up into the expiration next week.  My SPY June put order was filled.  Shortly thereafter the market began to move up.  I decided to sell that order right back for about a 15% loss and move on to a higher strike price, which I did.  That trade is now showing a loss.  It really looks like this is the wrong idea overall.  The Dow was much stronger than the overall market but that doesn't seem to matter.  We're still overbought and staying there for most of the major stock indices.  The VIX is now below 12, which is a new low since the decline earlier this year.  Small stocks indexes are setting new all time highs.  Perhaps all the bullishness in the media is actually warranted.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  For some reason GE is not participating in the rally.  Gold finished the day little changed as the US dollar lost a little ground.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The yield on TNX rose.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm back in the next trade but now feel as if I maybe should have just stepped aside from this SPY put idea.  I at least bailed out of the first trade right away, which now appears to be the right move.  However backing that up by trying to move up to a higher strike price doesn't look like it's going to work.  There's still 7 days to go in the June option cycle but at the rate we're climbing it won't matter.  We'll see how the rest of the week goes but I don't anticipate any kind of turnaround in this environment.  But the market does go where it wants and we won't stay overbought forever, will we?  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Pretty much sideways today as the Dow fell 13 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small sticks still leading the way.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY June puts.  A run to 2760 on the S&P 500 should be enough to get the order filled.  Overbought and staying there for most of the major indices.  The VIX remains below 13.  GE was up almost a dime on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks with the US dollar slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX were slightly higher on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market has the feel of simply marking time here so far this week.  It's as if it is simply on hold until we get the Fed announcement in a week.  The summertime feel is already here.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time closing high today along with QQQ and NDX.  RUT as well.  With these indices leading the way it appears that higher prices are inevitable.  Then why try the index puts?  Well we are pretty far above the 50 day moving averages for the small stocks.  We also will not stay overbought forever.  Add in the bullishness that I'm hearing in the media and I think that at the right price the puts are worth a shot.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow rose 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The VIX is now below 13.  RUT hit a new all time high and the NASDAQ appears to be ready to break out.  The S&P 500 is the laggard here.  I did place an open order for some SPY June puts again if we see a rally to the 2760 level.  However with the trend so strongly in favor of higher prices now, I may cancel this order tonight.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought.  But that can continue as prices move up.  The TRAN was lower today but that may not mean anything.  GE was off over 1/3 on good volume.  GE closed back below its 50 day moving average.  Gold was off a couple bucks while the US dollar was a little lower.  The XAU and GDX were both a bit lower on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only nine days left in the June option cycle.  I'm trying to figure out if the powers that be are simply going to run things up here into expiration.  It is a possibility.  The light volume today may or may not be a concern.  We do already seem to be in summer mode for the market.  I am trying this SPY put trade because we are overbought and the media seems rather bullish at the moment.  The VIX is also lower than it has been lately and could be due for a snap back to the upside.  There is some economic data due out this week but the real story may lie in next weeks Fed announcement and the markets reaction to it.  There's also the geo-political background of the US/North Korea summit on the 12th.  If it actually happens.  So there are potential market movers but they are not until next week.  I'll look things over again tonight and decide what to do with the open order.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the late night developments. 

The back and forth continued today as the Dow rose 219 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks continue to lead the way.  The VIX is now back below 14 and all signs point to a bullish case for higher prices going forward.  The employment report was a little better than expected and the market was higher from the get go.  I did get stopped out of my SPY June put trade when the market opened.  It was a 25% loss and I can live with that.  The timing going in wasn't as good as it could be and the subsequent decline was shallow.  There's still two weeks left in the June option cycle and I may try this trade again despite all the bullishness.  But I don't see a clear signal at the moment.  GE was up a couple cents on average volume.  Gold lost $7 as the US dollar edged higher.  Rates ticked up a bit as well but did not have a noticeable effect on gold and the dollar today.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on average volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another trading loss.  I'm taking solace in the fact that at least this time I managed the trade correctly.  There really wasn't any chance to take a decent profit for the duration of that trade.  I'll simply have to wait and see what my next decision will be.  The short term indicators on the S&P 500 are making there way back to overbought levels.  The Bollinger bands are starting to constrict which means that some type of move is in the works.  Now the question is will this take place during the June option cycle or not?  We've still got the Fed meeting before expiration and now the US/North Korea summit appears to be on track as well.  Geo-political concerns from Italy/Europe have been put aside for a day.  As long as the small stocks are leading the way it is hard to get too concerned about a substantial decline.  However with the overbought short term readings in most of the major averages, it's also hard to try and trade this from the long side.  I'll have to wait for what I deem to be the next signal and take it from there.  I also may just sit things out for a while because we are on the cusp of summer and the potential doldrums could be coming up.  I will look things over this weekend and decide what to do or not do going forward.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.