Thursday, January 19, 2017
Lower today as the Dow fell 72 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. This should turn the summation index lower. Today was the first solid weakness in breadth and must be taken into consideration. My work indicated that there would be some strength in the past couple of sessions but that did not materialize. There are no buyers and the market is simply slowly dropping on its own weight. Volume has dried up. The usual positive expiration week bias did not appear. My SPY January calls are solid losers and I'll be taking the loss tomorrow. I'm disappointed to start the year on a sour note but what can you do? GE was off a couple cents but the volume was good. Earnings due before the bell tomorrow and that should influence the market. Gold was off around $7 on the futures. The US dollar was up a bit. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not happy about taking a loss on the first trade of the year but it looks like I simply held on for too long. I expected upside this week and it didn't happen. When the market doesn't do what is technically expected it's time to take notice. Perhaps the sideways congestion in the S&P 500 is actually a double top. But I will say that some of my indicators are in a longer term oversold area. That implies that any downside will not last. Expiration Friday will be the final day for this trade and nothing short of a 200 point rally will save it. I'll try and cut the loss as best that I can but it is already too late for that. Perhaps I'll begin looking at the SPY February calls. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in overnight trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.