Wednesday, January 11, 2017
We bounced around today during the press conference from the new president Trump but eventually finished the session with a gain of 98 points on the Dow. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The summation index is trying to move higher here. Perhaps we can make it to the 20000 level by the end of the week but I would not be surprised by some more near term weakness. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today. We did close on the high of the day though and that is a positive. My SPY January calls are back in the black but this trade is in a precarious position. The volatility of the option premium is high due to the fact that the strike price is so close to being in the money. Add the fact that the time decay is accelerating as we get closer to expiration and you can see that this isn't an easy trade to monitor and hold. We'll see how things go from here. GE was up a dime on light volume. Some of the short term indicators here are oversold so maybe GE can get something moving to the upside. That would help the Dow get to the promised land. Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures today as the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on a bit better than average volume. The gold shares have not followed gold higher lately and that is not a positive. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Dow turned around today and TRAN is back moving to the upside. Perhaps the 20000 will be reached this time around. The S&P 500 also has a chance to move to new all time highs if we can get past the 2275 on good volume. If we can get things moving higher, there is no overhead resistance. I would not rule out another bout of weakness first in the near term, if we are lower tomorrow. The short term technical picture for the major averages is mixed at the moment. Some are still short term overbought, while others are in the short term oversold area. Economic data due Friday but we do get a speech by Yellen tomorrow. That has the potential to be a market mover. It looks like I'll be holding onto the SPY January call trade longer than anticipated. The risk increases with each passing day as there are only 6 trading days left in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on overnight trading.