Friday, January 20, 2017
We ended the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 94 points on average volume. The advance/declines were a bit short of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index did turn down yesterday. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The market took off to the upside after the open and with the exception of the Dow, never got back to the early morning levels. I sold my SPY January calls in the morning for a 25% loss. I suppose I was lucky just to get that. Considering this trade was over a 50% loss yesterday, I'll take it. There never was a chance in todays session to get that trade back to break even. The market was being held back by something. If GE could of had a decent day maybe the trade could have been savaged. But the earnings news there disappointed and GE lost 2/3 on very heavy volume. The medium term indicators for GE have now rolled over but it is holding at the 50 week moving average for now. Gold was up $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower today. The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/4. Volume was light. The fundamentals still do not favor gold at this time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Sideways for six weeks now on the S&P and it is frustrating for directional traders such as myself. I still think we'll eventually get above the 20000 level on the Dow but the question is when? Most of the major stock indices remain short term overbought with the exception of the Dow. I will simply have to wait for what I think is a decent signal and go from there. We'll roll into the February option cycle on Monday. The premiums will be high. Some economic data due next week but nothing that looks market moving at the moment. I'm still leaning towards the SPY February calls but I'll have to check things out over the weekend. The market did not act as I expected this week and that is a cause for concern on my part. But now that I'm out of the last trade perhaps fresh eyes will be upon things. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe very slightly higher overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.