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Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Lower for the Dow once again as it lost 31 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is starting to trend sideways.  Once again the NASDAQ was higher in a repeat of yesterdays price action.  However the market has dropped in the final hour of trading in the past couple of sessions and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  We also tried to rally today and lost all of the gains.  To me, the price action looks tired.  My SPY January calls are back to break even.  I still think that we'll get through the 20000 level on the Dow but it may be later rather than sooner.  I also now may have to hold on to this SPY trade longer than I wanted to, which would mean holding it during expiration week.  GE was off about a dime on light volume.  A 3 week down trend in place here.  Gold was up a couple bucks today and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were up slightly on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No hard economic data due until Friday along with some bank earnings out on that day as well.  We do have the new president Trump in a press conference tomorrow and a speech by Yellen on Thursday.  They both have the potential to be market movers but we will simply have to wait and see.  The price action in RUT was at least positive today and the NASDAQ hit a new all time high.  Once again we have to see the major averages turn back up in a hurry because the short term technical indicators have rolled over.  Todays price action was not positive for the big caps.  That said, there is a potential chance that we are forming a small reverse head and shoulders on the daily charts for the big caps.  If that is the case then the SPY January call trade will work itself out to show a profit sometime next week.  That could simply be wishful thinking on my part.  For now I'll continue to hold the trade knowing that the risk increases with each passing day.  Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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