Monday, January 09, 2017
We began the week with a thud as the Dow fell 76 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. This could start the summation index to turn sideways. The short term technical indicators are rolling over here and we'll need to see that change in a hurry or my SPY January call trade will be in jeopardy. It is now barely showing a profit. No real news today and there really isn't anything on the radar to boost stocks in the near term. The VIX is at a range that has produced near term declines in the recent past. However the NASDAQ was up today and that is a small plus. But the lack of volume today is another negative sign. GE was off over 1/8 on light volume. Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX barely budged today despite as rise in gold and the drop in the US dollar. That is not a good sign for the bulls. We would normally like to see the gold shares leading gold itself. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Only 8 days left in the January option cycle. With todays negative price action, I may have to hold on to this trade longer than I originally planned. However the technical picture doesn't look near term positive here and it's possible the market will roll over here. The contraction of the Bollinger bands is another warning sign that something is about to happen. Positive or negative. We don't know exactly which way things will go here. But with the market more overbought than oversold, the odds seem to favor a decline. We'll see. There will have to be a catalyst in the next few days to move things higher. I do not see one on the horizon. Stocks appear to be following oil lower here. It's something to keep an eye on in the near term. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.