Thursday, January 12, 2017
Weakness as expected today as the Dow fell 63 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to move higher. It could have been worse as the Dow was off over 175 points in the morning. There's still bound to be some selling ahead but tomorrow will be important as far as my SPY January call trade goes. This trade is showing a loss with only 5 days to go before expiration. We have economic data due tomorrow and it will be the last day to trade before a long holiday weekend in the US. You can make a case for the market to go either way here. I knew that if I held the position this long, I'd be holding it into the expiration week. That is where I find myself today. I do expect some upside in the middle and towards the end of next week. But from what level on the S&P is the question. GE lost a few cents and the volume was a little better. Gold was flat after being higher during the day. The US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight moves on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I guess Yellens speech isn't until tonight. It may impact the market but interest should turn to earnings and data by morning. We've been sideways for about 5 weeks now. The market is either building a top or getting ready to break out to the promised land of 20000 on the Dow. I'm thinking that expiration week ahead of the presidential inauguration will tell the tale but that's just a guess. Technically the S&P 500 is still in the short term overbought zone. I think that if we can get through the next couple of sessions without any major damage we'll go higher after that. But the risk really ramps up holding onto the SPY January call trade with each passing day. The trading is never easy. But at this juncture I'm basically locked into holding onto the trade until sometime near the end of next week. We'll see how it goes. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.