Monday, January 23, 2017
Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 27 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index is trending lower but not at a rapid pace. The small stocks are still showing better relative performance but the S&P 500 was the weak link today. It is a mixed bag of results as we remain in a trading range malaise. No volume means no interest as the market continues to wait for direction. GE was off 3/4 on pretty heavy volume again. GE closed below its 200 day moving average. If GE is a precursor of things to come, then the overall market will drop down from here to lower prices. Time will tell. Gold found a bid and was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower. The XAU added 2 1/2, while GDX rose 2/3. Volume was good. I still don't believe that gold is about to take off here to the upside. Mentally I'm doing OK. Waiting on some kind of signal to enter the next trade. Plenty of time in the February option cycle. Some of the major indices have reached the short term oversold level but it is not unanimous. We also have some indexes perched on their 50 day moving averages, while others remain above. I still think that the ultimate resolution will be higher prices and I am looking at the SPY February calls. However the timing of this potential trade is the main question for now. If things line up properly, I'll attempt the trade. If not I'll just have to wait. Asia was mixed but the NIKK dropped hard. Europe was lower in overnight trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.