Friday, January 06, 2017
The Dow almost touched the 20000 promised land today but fell back. What we're really looking for is a close above that level. The most watched index gained 64 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. Low volume and weak breadth are not the conditions you'd like to see for an advance past 20000. So we will still have to wait. The summation index is moving higher and that is a plus. The small stocks are still looking good but the weakness in RUT is a concern. The employment report had no real surprises and after initial weakness, the stock market moved higher. My SPY January calls are still in the black. GE was up a dime on light volume. Gold gave back $8 after a pretty good week. The US dollar was up today. The XAU shed 2 2/3, while GDX lost over 3/4. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The S&P 500 is near term overbought and price is touching the top of the Bollinger bands. It appears that perhaps a pause is due. Weak volume on todays rise is another sign of at least short term exhaustion in my view. I could be wrong. There are 2 weeks to go in the January option cycle but with one less day due to a holiday. I'm still a believer in 2300 for the S&P but I don't know if we'll get there before expiration on the 20th. I may have to exit this SPY call trade next week. We'll see. The jobs numbers weren't anything special. I'm not sure what the next catalyst higher will be. There are sellers here just short of 20000. Perhaps when we get them out of the way the market can move higher and the focus won't just be on that particular number. Hasn't happened yet. So there will be plenty to think about over the weekend. I'll be searching for clues in the charts as usual. Asia was mixed and Europe once again had little price movement overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.