Tuesday, January 31, 2017
Another mixed market as the Dow shed 107 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The NASDAQ was up a point. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a positive. The summation index is moving lower but without velocity for now. My thinking here is that declines tomorrow can be bought. I'll be looking to purchase the SPY February calls. We have the beginning of the month tomorrow but more importantly, the Fed. I'm hoping for some selling on the Fed but the market will go where it wants. The market has come back in each of the previous two sessions. Selling has been met with buying. As long as that pattern holds there is now danger of a bigger decline. GE was off 1/4 on OK volume. The potential double bottom is still in place here. Perhaps today was the ideal time to try the calls. There is a potential positive divergence on the daily RSI. Gold rose $17 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU added 2 3/4, while GDX was up 3/4. Volume was about average. I'm still not a big fan of gold here. Mentally I'm feeling tired as I have a cold now. This is affecting my ability to concentrate on the trade. I again may place an overnight order for the SPY calls but we'll have to see. I think that perhaps waiting to get the Fed out of the way would be the better course of action. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have moved back to mid-range. A turn up from here could lead to a small rally to new highs and make trading the SPY calls a profitable idea. That's the theory for now. On the flip side, we could simply decline until the indicators get oversold. I'm more of a believer in the first mentioned scenario. Asia was lower with some markets still closed for holiday. Europe was down as well. Some of the European index charts have a similar look to them as the US. Holding in here is key because there just isn't any support if we go much lower in the near term. It's some thing to keep an eye on. The DAX in particular. We'll see what tomorrow brings.