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Tuesday, January 24, 2017

A rally springs up form nowhere as the Dow gained 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  The S&P 500 did hit a new all time high.  There is no overhead resistance for the S&P and I am looking at the February calls.  The problem is the technical indicators are short term overbought.  However when we are in rally mode, the indicators can stay overbought for a while.  The Dow is now less than 100 points away form the 20000 level.  So I will consider putting in an open order for the SPY calls tonight.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  I'm considering the GE calls here as well.  The technical indicators here are oversold on a short term basis.  Medium term we are in the middle.  Again, this is something that I'll look over tonight.  Gold dropped $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had minor fractional gains on OK volume.  The gold shares did fall back from their intra-day highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is pretty low here which is another thing to consider before the next trade.  But I do think that we could also be about to break out to the upside from the recent trading range.  The volume was good to the upside today and that hasn't been seen in a while.  One day doesn't make a trend though.  Perhaps the more prudent course of action would be to wait for the short term indicators to come off of their current overbought levels.  As you can see I'm a bit torn about what to do here.  I guess the question is whether the six week consolidation that we've just seen is a top or not.  If it isn't, we are about to take off to the upside in my opinion.  There will be plenty to think about tonight.  Last night Asia was mixed and Europe was slightly higher.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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