Wednesday, January 18, 2017
A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to move up. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 were higher today. It appears that the market is in a holding pattern for whatever reasons. That is certainly unusual for option expiration week. I'm still of the belief that we are going to head higher. However with only 2 days to go for the January options, I'm in a very risky position. My SPY January calls are in the money but in the red as well. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. The economic data out provided no surprises and the Feds beige book was met with a collective yawn. The market is still looking for direction here. GE was off a few cents and the volume was lighter. Gold fell 8 bucks today as the US dollar bounced back. The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was good moving lower today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I had thought that the Dow would have a good rise this week and take us to the promised land of 20000. At this point it would take quite a 2 day rally to get there. It doesn't appear to be in the cards for now. The market is perhaps waiting to see what Trump has to say in his speech on Friday. I really do not want to hold on to this trade until then but it may be my only shot to get out without too much of a loss. The S&P 500 did go up 4 points today but I was looking for more than that. I do think that we'll be higher again tomorrow but it may not be enough to save the trade. The light volume isn't a positive sign as well. The longer the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the S&P 500 keeps going sideways, the more the pattern becomes negated. It may not work at all unless we see a high volume breakout to the upside. Right now that doesn't seem to be how the market will go from here. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the developments in trading tonight around the world.