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Monday, January 04, 2016

The market got clobbered to begin the 2016 trading year.  The Dow fell 276 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We were off over 400 during the session.  Todays action should turn the summation index back down.  However the breadth once again was not as bad as a down 276 market would suggest.  Bad news from China was the excuse.  The Santa Claus rally didn't show up this year and that usually is not good news for the stock market.  My SPY January calls are dead.  It isn't the way I wanted to start the year.  I'll hold onto them until we get a reflex rally, if that happens.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was good.  I'm still considering getting some calls here but we'll need to see the indicators oversold on at least a daily basis.  Gold found buyers on a flight to safety as there were some negative weekend headlines from the Middle East.  Precious metal futures rose $13 and the US dollar gained 1/3 as well.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was OK here.  Probably just a one day affair for this sector.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The comeback in the final hour was a positive for equities after the previous two days saw just the opposite.  I don't think that it is the beginning of a rally though.  But who knows?  I could be wrong.  But the short term technical indicators haven't gotten completely oversold yet.  Plus we are at risk for another negative headline at any time.  However that particular risk is present all the time.  The technicals say there is more work to do to the downside.  The only thing that would negate that would be a 200 plus point move to the upside tomorrow.  I suppose today is a happy new year for the bears.  Plenty of economic data out this week, capped off with Fridays employment numbers.  We'll see how things shape up overnight as all the major stock exchanges were lower yesterday.  Could be a wild ride.     

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