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Friday, January 29, 2016

Markets around the world rallied on a surprise easing move by the Japanese.  The Dow took off like a rocket and did not look back.  It climbed almost 400 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around.  All signs point to higher prices.  Todays GDP report was pushed into the background.  There was no retest of the recent low and the SPY February calls were the right trade.  Unfortunately the premiums never made it back to where I was comfortable to purchase them.  Another missed opportunity.  We still have three weeks in the February option cycle but the best time has passed.  I do not think that we'll get another decent set up but you never know.  Declines can be bought.  GE rallied as well, up 7/8 on good volume.  Just above $29 now as it tries to break through the $28-$29 channel that it has been in.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures despite a huge rise in the US dollar.  The XAU up another 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was lighter today.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated once again as I have missed out on this good move higher.  The day we went down 600 intra-day was the opportunity to be aware of.  Perhaps my busy schedule the prior week had me not at the top of my game.  But there are no excuses in this endeavor.  The market doesn't care as usual.  The short term technical indicators are overbought but not by much.  There is no overhead resistance until we get to 2000 on the S&P 500.  So perhaps there will be a trade before expiration but the ideal time has passed.  We should be positive early next week with beginning of the month money flows.  Maybe a SPY put trade will present itself but it will be against the tide now.  Plenty to think about over the weekend and I'll have to try and regroup.  At least my ideas are back on the right track at the moment.  I'll check all the charts and try and come up with something for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

1 comment:

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