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Thursday, January 21, 2016

The Dow rose 115 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I still think that we're moving higher from here.  I'm hoping for another move lower to purchase some SPY February calls.  I did have an order in today bit it wasn't filled.  I do think that the market is trying to stabilize here.  The ideal scenario would be a lower print on the S&P 500 combined with a higher McClellan oscillator reading.  I don't think that's going to happen.  So perhaps the opportunity has passed but time will tell on that.  GE was up over 1/2 on good volume.  The earnings will drive this issue tomorrow and perhaps the overall market as well.  I did not get the calls here as I had wanted.  The premiums are higher than normal due to the volatility.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  Gold was off about $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was off a bit but was higher early.  The XAU was up 1/2 and GDX was barely higher.  Volume was pretty light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It has been a pretty wild week in the market so far.  How we finish things tomorrow will be important.  The weekly charts for the major stock indices appear to be putting in hammer candlestick patterns.  That would be bullish going forward, which would fit in with my end of the decline scenario.  So we'll have to see how it goes.  The foreign markets are still going down.  Especially Asia.  Some stability there would also bolster the bullish cause here.  Although the summation index is still heading lower we are getting to the point where it will need to turn around.  Perhaps we are approaching that level.  Now I don't think that things will simply go straight up once we get turned around.  But there should be opportunities to own calls and make profits.  There is still a lot of time left in the February option cycle.  Do be aware that if the volatility declines, that will also start to erode some of the option premium.  So timing as always will be key along with paying close attention to what is going on.  I would not chase strength tomorrow but if we sell off early, it may provide the chance to get long.  We'll see.  Hopefully the foreign markets stop falling overnight but the markets, as usual, will go where they want.   

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