Monday, January 25, 2016
We began the week with a thud as the Dow fell 208 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index tried to turn around but after todays action it will be heading back down. A move lower here is what we'd like to see as it will give us a chance to purchase some SPY February calls. I don't know if we'll make it all the way back to the 1820 level on the S&P 500 but anything close to that would be good. We've got the Fed on Wednesday and it is probably a good idea to let that happen before taking any positions. The lighter volume today could be a sign that the selling is petering out. GE was off 20 cents on light volume. I'm not in a hurry to trade GE anymore as it is an issue that moves sideways for an extended period sometimes. I'm guessing that we are now in one of those time frames. Gold was up a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was average. There are still no compelling reasons to buy gold. There has however been some interest in ABX as it is up over 50% from its low of $6 last September. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Now the hard part comes as we have to try and figure out how low we go this week. I don't think that the ideal scenario of lower prices with a higher McClellan oscillator will play out. The oscillator almost made it back to the zero line but has been turned back as of today. The breadth was pretty negative today, so I'm expecting lower prices going forward into this week. So we'll see. I do believe at some point this week I'll be getting some SPY February calls. The Fed should provide some movement this week as well as the GDP report on Friday. Hopefully I'm up to the task. We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and go from there.