Wednesday, January 06, 2016
Continuing lower as the Dow dropped 252 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. Oversold, staying there and the market is in trouble. I have no idea why. The Fed minutes today were basically a non event. Employment news due Friday. I can't say that I have a good feeling about how the year has begun. I sold my SPY January calls for a 99% loss. One of my goals for the year was to limit the big losses and my first trade violated that. I'm certainly not happy about the outcome. Poor entry and just as poor exit. It doesn't get any worse than that. My bullish view of a Santa Claus rally and beginning of the new year strength was dead wrong. GE dropped today as well, off 1/2 on good volume. We're back to the 50 day moving average here and it will be important to hold on. Gold found some interest as the futures gained $15. The US dollar was off slightly on the day. Perhaps gold as a safe haven is coming into play here. We'll need to see more upside to believe that this is anything more than a short term blip. The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares are not leading the way higher and that is usually not a sign of strength. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as a big loss to start off the year isn't what I had in mind. I should have exited this trade as soon as the technical indicators started to roll over. But I was firm in my belief that a rally would occur. Always stick with the technicals. So where do we go from here? We are short term oversold so a bounce would not be out of the question. In the short term the odds favor calls at the moment. But with the summation index starting to head lower it appears a decline is in progress. The TRAN hitting fresh recent lows today isn't a positive either. Caution is probably the best way to describe how to go forward from here. Weakness in China is being blamed for the decline but there is probably something going on besides that. Lower commodity prices are also given as a reason. What we do know is that money is leaving stocks whatever the reasons. 2016 is getting off to a rough start and I don't think this will be a good year for the bulls. The January options expire next week so I will probably remain on the sidelines and wait for the February cycle. We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow lower and go from there.