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Friday, January 22, 2016

A strong move to the upside as the Dow gained 210 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  We can now say with certainty that the decline has ended.  The summation index is trying to stop moving down and turn around.  It appears that the chance to purchase the SPY February calls was missed however declines can now be bought.  If we get some weakness in the next four weeks, there may still be an opportunity to do that trade.  I would not chase things here though.  You really had to be on top of things Wednesday to make that trade work and I wasn't up to the task.  We'll see if there is another chance.  GE fell 1/3 on heavy volume.  It did come off of its lows though.  Earnings were not celebrated.  Now there was a case of saving some money by not doing the trade.  I had been looking at getting some calls before the earnings report.  Which once again shows the risk of trading ahead of the earnings.  Even though the technical indicators were oversold, buying the calls would not have worked today.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Markets around the world rallied overnight as things were really extremely oversold.  The Japanese stock market rallied over 900 points in one session.  That is incredible.  However I must warn you that in down markets, rallies appear out of nowhere.  I believe that to be the case for the events going on at this time.  I do not see markets going back to challenge the old highs anytime soon.  I do expect more weakness as the year goes on.  But for now the decline in the S&P 500 has run its course.  If we get some downside next week, I'll be looking at the SPY calls.  We've got the Fed next week and that could be a market mover one way or the other.  The first look at 4th quarter GDP will be on tap as well.  Plus the end of the month maneuvering.  So we'll see what happens.  For now everyone will breath a sigh of relief as the downside has stopped for now.  As I said yesterday, we now have bullish hammers on most of the weekly major index candlestick charts.  Perhaps if I'm patient, there will be a shot at making a trade in the February option cycle.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with the game plan for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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