Monday, January 11, 2016
A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 52 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative though. The small stocks were lower. The summation index continues strong to the downside. Getting even more oversold each day and some kind of decent bounce is long overdue. It is expiration week and expect some more volatility. I would expect a 200+ point upside move for some day this week, considering the extremes in the short term indicators. That's my best guess at the moment. GE was up 1/8 but finished well off the highs. Volume was good. Gold was off around $10 on the futures as the US dollar rebounded. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was a bit above average. Mentally I'm feeling tired as I did not sleep enough and have many non market commitments this week. It takes a toll. You really need to devote yourself to the game if you want a realistic chance for profit. Nothing less than your best effort is required and expected. It is another reason why I will wait to roll into the February option cycle for the next trade. I'm looking for a bounce and sooner rather than later. The only trouble will be the zero line in the summation index. It spells market melt down is we swiftly travel through it. We are there right now. The only outcomes will be for things to stop and turn around or crash. So now is a time to really keep an eye on things. It's a danger zone. Even if we get the bounce that I'm expecting things could turn right back around and get ugly. The sidelines offer safety as usual. We'll see what happens overnight and take it from there.