Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Back to the upside as the Dow gained 282 points on what now passes for average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index should be trying to turn around again. I did place an overnight order for the SPY February calls but the weakness in the overnight futures did not carry through to the open. The order wasn't filled. It appears that the chance for the SPY calls has passed as the summation index is in an area that should provide some stability. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and GDP on Friday. There is still plenty of time to attempt the SPY February call trade but unless we see some weakness it will simply be another missed opportunity. I would not chase it here. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light. No trades here for now. Gold was up $15 on the futures as the US dollar was weaker today. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX climbed almost 2/3. Volume was good. Overbought now short term on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock market seems to be following the price of oil right now. I will say that once this relationship is well known, it will probably cease to exist. The markets reaction to the Fed statement will be more important in my opinion. Also the summation index moving to the upside will be another clue that calls for February will be the way to go. Technically for the S&P 500, the short term indicators have moved off of their oversold condition and are about mid-range. At the moment it doesn't appear that the recent lows will be retested. But as usual anything can happen in this game. Asian markets were weak again last night as the Shanghai broke to fresh new lows. We'll see if there is follow through tonight. The European markets held up though. Interesting times. We'll wait for the Fed tomorrow and see if we get a chance for a trade.