Wednesday, January 27, 2016
A decline after the Fed as the Dow lost 222 points on good volume. The advance/declines were not even 2 to 1 negative. The breadth is starting to improve and that tells me that the SPY February calls are still the game plan. The summation index is also still trying to turn around here. However the small stocks are showing relative weakness at the moment. So we have plenty of crosscurrents. Oil went up today but stocks dropped anyway. So perhaps that inverse price relationship is over. Time will tell on that. Another down day tomorrow would roll over the short term technical indicators. GDP on Friday should be the next market mover. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was OK. Gold futures rose $10 today as the US dollar was down for the third day in a row. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was average. The gold shares have gone straight up the past 6 days and that will not last forever. I don't know why. There really aren't any fundamental reasons for money to be flowing that way. Markets always go where they want to. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. Perhaps we are going to test the recent lows and if so that would be the ideal opportunity to purchase the SPY February calls. We will probably need to go down there in a hurry though. Sideways here is a possibility as well. I would like to wait for the GDP report before taking a position but if we are weak tomorrow, I might just do it then. Of course my hypothesis could be wrong and we simply continue down to fresh new lows. Always plenty of questions in trading. But I am pretty convinced that the turnaround from the 600 point intra-day downside last Wednesday was the bottom for now. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lead lower overnight.