Friday, January 08, 2016
The market tried to bounce today but it just didn't happen. The Dow fell 167 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The jobs number was better than expected and we began the day higher. But the selling came in immediately and continued. The summation index is heading down. At this rate we will be heading for the zero line here again and things could get worse. Oversold, staying there and that is a problem. I'm still looking at the 1880 level on the S&P 500 as a major area. If that doesn't hold we'll be dropping in a hurry. Expiration week coming up and hold on to your seats. I don't know what is worse. Continuing to drop or trying to rally and failing. Something is happening under the surface that I don't know once again. I'm still advising caution. GE got sold off again, down 3/8 but with lighter volume than yesterday. Oversold here as well. I'll consider the February calls over the weekend. Gold was off $4 on the futures, while the US dollar was only slightly higher. The XAU was off 1 1/3 and GDX fell 1/3. Volume was lighter. Gold should retreat once we get a bounce in the overall market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Quite a negative week to begin the new year. It's ominous in my opinion. We are overdue for a short term bounce as any rally attempt is being sold. Like I said, I don't know what is going on here. Things could get worse if we go through the zero line on the summation index. We are getting close. Monday should be interesting. My advice is that the sidelines are best for now unless you want to try and pick a bottom. If that's the case, I'd look for some calls at the 1880 level on the S&P if we get there. For me, after already starting the year with a loss, I'm going to wait until the February option cycle. Considering that China held up overnight and we still fell pretty good today tells me that something is wrong somewhere else as well. Where that is, I don't know. It will all come out eventually. The time to buy is when everybody is selling. But I don't know if the selling is completed. I wish I could be of more help. The stock market is in a free fall. Tread lightly. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.