Thursday, January 14, 2016
Todays bounce was more like it as the Dow gained 227 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower but the McClellan oscillator did turn around. We've gone through the zero line on the summation index but I now believe that the decline has ended. Now we may close marginally lower than todays low in the days to come but this down draft is done in my opinion. My technical indicators have reached oversold levels that aren't usually seen and ones that do mark the end of declines. We'll probably go lower as the year wears on. However for now I'll be looking at calls going forward. GE gained over 3/4 and the volume was good. If it heads back down, the February calls could be the next trade. Gold dropped almost $15 and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX fell 1/2. Volume was average. Gold just can never get going. Mentally I'm tired. There is only so much you can do at a time. So my guess is that the decline stops here. I do think that it will prove to be the correct choice. If we do have new near term lows there should be some positive divergences that set up. That will be the opportunity to purchase some SPY February calls. That could be my next trade as well. We'll have to wait and see how things play out. We'll see if the foreign markets can rally after the Dow overnight.