Thursday, December 31, 2015
We ended the year with a thud as the Dow lost 178 points on light volume. The advance/declines were not even 2 to 1 negative. That is the only positive that I can see here. The summation index is still moving up but appears to be stalling. The S&P 500 finished the year negative. The Santa Claus rally isn't here. The usual action this time of year is buying to try to get ahead of the crowd. This year it seems like there's selling for the same reason. I am not positive on the stock market for 2016. I could be wrong, as I was this year. GE was up a dime and the volume was pretty good. GE has held up well lately and is out performing. It is not however, acting as a clue to where the overall market is headed. Gold was flat on the session but the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had little change on light volume. I don't see much progress for gold in the coming year. The fundamentals here remain negative in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. My SPY January calls are back solidly in the red. As much as I don't want to begin the new trading year with a loser, it appears that will be the case. The entry timing was horrible and the market is heading lower. The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major indices. We only need the summation index to turn around here and the rout will begin in earnest. So stocks went nowhere in 2015 and 2016 doesn't look any better. But time will tell on that. We'll close the books for 2015 with a slight trading gain of 2%. I'll be checking the charts as usual in the next few days. It's time to enjoy a holiday weekend. Happy New Year everyone.