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Monday, December 14, 2015

We got a much needed bounce today as the Dow gained 103 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative however.  The summation index continues lower.  I would like to say the decline has ended but I can't with that awful A/D mix.  The McClellan oscillator is still very negative and that needs to change before we can tell that this rout is over.  Todays market action will probably send this indicator even lower.  I would like to attempt the SPY December calls this week because at some point there will be a decent bounce.  But the level at which to try this trade remains the all important question.  Probably a better course of action for me would be inaction.  I am usually not too good at the short term trades.  GE was flat on the day after being much lower.  Volume remains good here.  Perhaps I'll try the January calls but the premiums will have to come down for me.  Gold lost a dozen on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU fell about 2 3/4, while GDX lost a bit more than 3/4.  Volume was nothing special.  I cannot see anyone buying gold ahead of a Fed that will raise rates.  Even if it is just 1/4 percent.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Fed on Wednesday will be all the attention of traders.  I still think that the market will rally after the Fed announcement.  We remain oversold for the major averages on a short term basis even with todays gains.  The small stocks underperformed today and that isn't bullish.  The weak breadth is a negative as well.  The TRAN did come off of its lows and is trying to hold up at the lows of August.  This is something to keep an eye on.  The VIX also turned around today.  So there are a mix of positives and negatives to weigh in on.  We are at levels on some of the indicators where things have turned around in the past.  But not everything is lined up to be positive.  Obviously there is something going on beneath the surface that we are not aware of.  Perhaps the sidelines would be prudent and them maybe try something for the Santa Claus rally.  I have yet to make up my mind.  The foreign markets were mostly lower overnight.  We'll see if they rebound taking a cue from the US today.  I'll consider if making another trade in the December option cycle is what I want to do tonight.   


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