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Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 158 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Yellen spoke today and the market didn't like what it heard.  We also got the beige book minutes.  Whatever positive that we got with yesterdays price action was negated by todays move.  I may have to rethink what I'm doing here.  The summation index is moving up but looks like it could turn around.  The short term technical indicators are rolling over.  My prognosis of higher prices is now in doubt.  The SPY December calls that I have are still showing a profit but they lost a lot of ground today.  GE lost 20 cents on what now passes as average volume.  I am leaving in the order for the January calls here.  This too could be a mistake if we do roll over here with the regards to the overall market.  Perhaps canceling this trade and dumping the SPY calls before further damage is done is the right move here.  Gold lost $11 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3 and GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN turned around today as well and perhaps it and GE is telling us that the rally is over.  The TRAN broke its uptrend line from the summer today.  Other major indices have not.  I still may wait to see what happens if the S&P 500 gets to the 200 day moving average and uptrend line at 2065.  Of course there's the chance that by then it may be too late.  So there will be a lot to think about overnight.  If we get some downside follow through tomorrow, the case for the rally being over is strengthened.  If not, then it's a toss up going into the employment report.  Technically, we're more overbought than oversold.  I was pretty confident in my appraisal of things before today.  But you've got to be able to listen to the market and hear what it is telling you.  So the price action tomorrow will be pretty important.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower and take it from there.

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