Friday, December 11, 2015
The market ended the week with a thud as a gap lower led to big losses. The Dow fell 309 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 7 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to slide. Oversold, staying that way and that is not good sign. I suppose I should have heeded the market warnings of lower prices early in the week but I didn't. That's one of my common problems when I'm holding a long position. But the market is always right and must be listened to. The retail sales didn't matter as some kind of worldwide liquidation is taking place. There are problems with redemptions at some institutions that deal with commodities and junk bonds. At least that is the excuse that they're pedaling. I certainly don't know. I did take the loss on my SPY December calls to the tune of 60%. This trade was a winner early on. Just another mistake in a year that had a few. GE was off over 1/3 and the volume was good. I still like this issue for the January calls but it will have to get oversold for me to try it. Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower. No flight to safety here. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains. Volume remains weak. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Option expiration week is coming up with the Fed announcement on Wednesday. There will be some economic data due but when we are in this type of unknown environment the data takes a back seat. The McClellan oscillator is very oversold and did not have a good bounce yesterday when it should have. We are now in the territory where we should see some kind of decent bounce with the next couple of days. However the timing of this is almost impossible to determine because we could have a washout before this occurs. That is probably what we are seeing now and should have downside follow through in the market on Monday. How long this washout lasts is the question that I do not have an answer to. It could set up for the Santa Claus rally and higher prices into the beginning of next year. Or it could be an anemic attempt to move higher which would be bearish to say the least. There will probably be an opportunity to get some index calls next week for a short term trade at some point. I do think that the market will rally on the Fed announcement. However I am usually never nimble enough to profit form the short term action. Next week would probably not be an exception. But I do believe it will be there for the taking. The summation index is not in the zone for a crash yet. So expect at least some sort of huge upside move at some point next week. Keep an eye on the TRAN as well as it has been a leader as to what the market has done lately. The technicals on the VIX are blown out now as well and in the area where things have turned around. There will be numerous things to consider over the weekend. Or you can stay on the sidelines and let what is happening right now play itself out. I'm not sure which to do but caution is again advised either way. I did not enjoy booking the loss today but it is part of the game. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and keeping an eye on the headlines as well. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.