Friday, December 04, 2015
Whipsawed back to the upside today as the Dow climbed an incredible 370 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Not exactly good breadth for a market up like that. Even with todays rise the summation index is still heading lower. The employment report was in line with estimates. The short term technical indicators are now turning back up for the major indices. The volatility has increased dramatically this week. I don't know what it means. Like I have said a number of times, the market will go where it wants. I doubt anyone could have predicted the week we just saw. Next week should be interesting. My SPY December calls are back in the black. GE was up almost 1/2 on good volume. I still have the open order in for the January calls there but it doesn't look like I'll get filled at the price that I want. I may consider ending this trade attempt next week. Gold found buyers despite the good jobs report. The precious metal futures were up $25 despite a rise in the US dollar. The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was more that it has been lately. I'm not exactly sure what is going on here but I will say that the fundamentals for gold remain negative for now. I also don't see anything that would change that going forward. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The market volatility makes for more angst than usual. But it's part of the game. After todays gains I'd like to say that I'm back believing that we'll see new all time highs in the S&P 500 before years end again. But we do know that one day does not make a trend. The breadth was lacking despite the huge move higher to day. That isn't a good sign. I wouldn't be surprised if we move sideways next week as well. But with the turnaround today the odds for higher stock prices have increased going forward. Perhaps my target of 2120 for the S&P 500 before expiration will come to pass. We still have 2 weeks to go. However things can turn on a dime as we have seen today. The Fed announcement won't be for another week and a half. There are plenty of variables that we usually don't have here in the month of December. So there will be a lot to ponder over the weekend. I'd bee a lot more positive if we could see the summation index start to move back up. Hasn't happened yet. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.