Tuesday, December 15, 2015
A better bounce today as the Dow rose 156 points on good volume. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. This rise was expected as the McClellan oscillator was in an area that was very oversold and we were due for something better than the rise yesterday. The question is now where do we go from here. I'm looking at the SPY January calls now because I believe that the worst is over for this decline. My guess from here is that declines can be bought. Perhaps if we see weakness tomorrow on the Fed, I'll purchase some index calls. The short term technical indicators are starting to roll back to the upside. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains good. The Bollinger bands here have been contracted for a couple of weeks and still we haven't seen a major move from that. I don't know what to make of it. I'd still like to own the January calls here. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session. The XAU and GDX were basically flat on the day. Volume was very light. There is not interest in owning gold at this stage of the game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and the whole world is expecting a small rate hike. Once we get that out of the way, I suppose the market will move on to worrying about the next thing. Whatever that may be. If we head lower tomorrow with a good head of steam then perhaps my call for higher prices from here is wrong. We'll have to wait and see what the market says. It is expiration week and that in itself brings volatility. Next week is a holiday week as well. The major players will be finishing up business this week I presume. The summation index is still heading lower but today could be the beginning of it trying to turn around. Or not. The game, as always, is never easy. But with a very oversold McClellan oscillator and the short term technical picture improving the odds favor a positive resolution to the question of where we're going. We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and see what tomorrow brings.