Thursday, December 17, 2015
The Dow reversed course today and fell 253 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index did not turn back up and continues lower. We closed at the lows of the session and that is bearish. My idea was that declines could be bought and I did purchase some SPY January calls today. They are already in the red. Perhaps my take on things here is wrong but time will tell on that. I don't know how tomorrows expiration will play out but todays price action wasn't what I expected. GE lost 20 cents on good volume. Perhaps we had a false breakout from the Bollinger bands here. Gold got clobbered as it fell over $25 on the futures. The US dollar had a strong session to the upside. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX shed more than 3/4. Volume picked up to the downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Already into the next trade and my entry timing was obviously off. The breadth today was not what you would expect with a down over 250 market. So that is a plus. Once we get through tomorrow, I would expect things to slow down for the rest of the year. The volatility should subside. However with the summation index turning back down and in close proximity to the zero line we are at risk for a total market collapse. I do not think this is the scenario that will occur but I could be wrong. Some of the short term technical indicators have rolled back over for the major indices but not all of them. Tomorrow will be important as it would bode well for the bulls if we could finish the week on a positive note. The foreign markets were strong overnight. We'll keep an eye on them tonight and close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.