Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Follow through to the downside as the Dow fell 162 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The S&P 500 is trying to hold the 200 day moving average. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a plus. However with the summation index moving lower at a good pace, a breakdown could occur. The commodity collapse of the past few days isn't helping the bullish cause. I continue to hold the SPY December calls and they have moved back into the red. Only eight days left here. GE was off 18 cents and the volume was good. I'm leaving in the open order for the January calls here. Gold was basically flat on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The TRAN got whacked today and that is another negative. If lower oil prices can't help this sector, then what will? This price action also doesn't bode well for the overall market. Maybe we are on the verge of a breakdown and I simply refuse to see it because I own some index calls. Or perhaps today was the end of the selling with the McClellan oscillator now in an area where we have seen bounces or turnarounds happen. Tomorrow could be a very important day for where things are going to go from here. The short term technical indicators remain neither overbought or over sold. So I suppose you can make a case either way. The breadth wasn't as negative as a down 162 market would suggest. The foreign markets have rolled over but are short term oversold already. Any improvement overseas could help US equities. Also if oil could stabilize that would be a plus for stocks. But none of these things have happened yet. We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading and be ready for whatever happens in the morning.