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Monday, March 16, 2015

A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow gained 228 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The light volume can be a concern and the breadth wasn't what you would expect with a market up over 200 points.  But the price action is positive and not what you would see if we were still in a downtrend.  The short term downtrend line has been broken to the upside in the major stock indices.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'd expect some hesitation tomorrow and up to the Fed release on Wednesday.  GE was up 3/8 on average volume.  My GE March calls now have a slight profit with 4 days to go in the March option cycle.  I plan on holding them until the Fed release.  My guess is that whatever the Fed has to say will be viewed as a reason to rally and hopefully GE goes along for the ride.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar dropped today.  The XAU and GDX finished the session barely moved.  They did both finish off of the lows again.  I did purchase some ABX April calls today.  They are slightly in the black.  This is a trade that will probably move off of the Fed announcement.  My idea here is a rally on the Fed and an exit on follow through Thursday morning.  At least that is the plan today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action of the past few days suggests that the decline is over.  Now that doesn't mean we can't retest the lows or simply move sideways here.  But it is option expiration week and perhaps the positive bias will be in effect.  As always, the market will go where it wants to.  I will say that I certainly did not expect a 200+ point rally to start the week.  GE had a nice move up as well.  There was a positive blurb about GE in Barrons over the weekend.  That may have helped.  Gold is still unloved and the usually negative month of March is only half over.  This ABX trade may not be the best idea but I'm giving it a shot and there isn't a lot of money involved.  So we'll see.  Tonight we'll get a look if the foreign markets can follow the US higher.

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