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Thursday, March 12, 2015

A bounce and more today as the Dow climbed 260 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  A bounce was due and we got it.  That doesn't mean that the decline has ended.  Where we go from here will determine that.  I can't say I have a good feel for what will happen.  6 days left in the March option cycle and we have the Fed to contend with next week.  The market could go either way.  I would be more positive if the small stocks would take the lead here.  They haven't yet.  GE was up about 20 cents but the volume was light.  My GE March calls are back to break even.  Oversold here and the 200 day moving average has shown support so far.  But this trade is one bad day from blowing up.  Running out of time as well.  There is a short term downtrend line in place as well.  If we can get through that, there's a chance this trade will turn a profit.  Gold was up a buck despite a drop in the US dollar.  Both the XAU and GDX had slight losses.  A mixed bag for the metals and there is no rush to make a trade here.  The lows of the past 6 months in the gold shares have held for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I will venture to guess that if we see strong upside follow through tomorrow, then this recent decline is over.  The Dow is right at its recent downtrend line.  If we get through that with good volume, it makes sense that higher prices will follow.  So tomorrow will be important.  Volatility has increased as we noticed before.  So the risk is more than usual.  The GE trade still has a chance to work but time is running out.  Even if it makes money, the trading tactics were terrible.  Lack of discipline is never a good thing.  Gold remains unloved.  The overseas markets rallied strong last night.  We'll see how markets around the world finish up the week tomorrow.

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