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Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Whipsaw today as the Dow fell 128 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up 7 points.  The summation index continues lower.  Tomorrow will tell the story of where the market is headed.  You can make a case for either direction but I am sticking with a bullish outcome.  We will probably drift around until the Fed statement.  The last 2 hours of trading tomorrow should be very interesting.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  My GE March calls, with 3 days to go are slightly in the negative.  Tomorrow will tell the story here as well.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar was off just a touch.  The dollar will get going tomorrow as well in my opinion.  The direction is the question.  The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX had a fractional loss.  ABX fell 1/4 on average volume.  My ABX April calls are in the red.  Perhaps this trade was not a good idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is nothing left to do but wait for the Fed.  Although we were negative on the Dow today, the internals suggest that it wasn't so bad.  The TRAN wasn't so negative either.  The short term technical indicators for the major indexes are about mid-range.  So anything could happen.  Gold and the gold shares remain oversold.  We'll see something happen tomorrow.  The overseas markets will probably be on hold as well but we'll keep an eye on them overnight.

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