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Wednesday, March 18, 2015

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 227 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  We were down well over 100 points during the session and then the Fed came to the rescue.  We expected volatility and market movement after the Feds game of words and we got it.  If I had any confidence I would have purchased some SPY calls during the morning.  But that is just another opportunity lost.  I'd expect to see some upside follow through tomorrow.  Option expiration on Friday.  GE went along for the ride and was up 1/3 on OK volume.  I finally sold my GE March calls.  I was lucky to get a 50% profit as this was another mismanaged trade.  I may move to the GE April calls next because the weekly charts still show room to move higher.  Gold rallied off of the Fed as well.  The futures had a slight gain in the regular session but went up $15 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar got crushed and continues to drop in the aftermarket as well.  It lost almost 2 points.  Parabolic moves never end well, if this is indeed the end.  The XAU gained 3 1/8 and GDX rose 7/8.  Volume was good.  ABX gained 2/3 on good volume.  My ABX April calls are in the black.  Now the question becomes whether to hold on to this trade or simply get out as originally planned.  The game is never easy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well the desired outcome appeared from the Fed and the markets responded as expected.  But where do we go from here?  My guess is that we are once again headed for new all time highs.  April calls are in order I believe.  The question is when do we purchase them?  There will most likely be a slow holiday shortened week in the April cycle.  But we will first have to see how far things run up into the Friday expiration.  The technical indicators for the gold shares have just turned up.  So there may be room for higher prices over a longer time period here.  But the fundamentals for gold are still negative.  However the way the volume came in for these issues today tells me that this may just be the beginning of a counter trend move higher.  We'll see.  I'm going to have to think about this tonight.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow higher and if the bid for gold remains.   

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