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Friday, March 27, 2015

A slight move higher today as the Dow rose 34 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading lower but not in big gaps.  I'm inclined to buy some SPY April calls on weakness Monday but I'll think about that this weekend.  A short week next week and lack of volume lately implies no interest.  We've also got the end of the month on Tuesday.  The technical indicators for the major stock indices are oversold.  However I'm not convinced that they can't stay that way.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  Just trying to cut the loss here unless we see some surprise upside move.  Gold was off $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX both had slight fractional losses.  Perhaps I can try the gold shares again before the April expiration but I'd like to finish the month of March first.  There could be some selling early next week but that's just a guess.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It was a pretty negative week for the stock indices.  The weekly candlestick charts look bearish.  The summation index is heading lower.  The only potential positive is the short term oversold condition.  The employment number coming out on a holiday adds to the uncertainty of next weeks shortened trading time.  There's a lot of questions out there.  If today was negative, I would have more conviction of getting long on weakness Monday.  We did break uptrend lines that go back to last year this week on the daily charts.  But there hasn't been any follow through downside action.  Yet.  That is the problem and the concern in buying calls here.  If the S&P 500 shoots through the 2050 level, you can expect more selling.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Gold has had a two week bounce.  We'll see if it can keep it up.  The gold shares were negative this week though and that is a bearish divergence.  I'm not sure what the next trading move is here.  I will have to go over the charts this weekend and come up with some decisions.  Staying on the sidelines is a decision as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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